WATCH every game of the 2022 FIFA World Cup LIVE, FREE and EXCLUSIVE on SBS.
For all the latest action and updates from the diverse range of SBS Sports, follow us on SBS Sport Facebook and Twitter.
On Monday (AEST), the Asian Football Confederation unveiled their plan for allocating the automatic qualification slots for eight AFC nations as well as one intercontinental playoff spot for the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.
The plan would see the Socceroos - currently ranked 39th in the world - expected to start in the second of four qualifying phases based on the current rankings, which would encompass 16 matches in a shorter period of time compared to the gruelling 33-month, 14-match route taken in order to reach the 2022 finals.
The announcement comes over five years after FIFA had confirmed a new 48-team format for the World Cup taking effect from 2026, which would see 16 groups, each comprising of three nations, battle it out for the two qualification spots in order to progress to the round of 32.
While the divisive decision to expand the tournament had its fair share of both admirers and critics, the new format would promise a greater chance for smaller and lower-ranked nations to qualify for the World Cup finals.
Based on the current world rankings, however, 33 of the nations set for automatic qualification to the 2026 tournament would be ranked above the Socceroos under the 48-team format, despite the Aussies' increased chances for qualification through the AFC system.
Under the same rankings, last updated by FIFA on June 23, 2022, only 12 nations ranked below Australia would automatically qualify for the tournament. This could make for some easier groups, although the chances of the Aussies coming up against some similarly ranked opposition are slim considering the numbers are significantly outweighed by higher ranked nations.
Lower ranked teams would include AFC affiliates Qatar (49th), Saudi Arabia (53rd), United Arab Emirates (69th) and Iraq (70th), as well as Oman (75th) who would be a chance of reaching the intercontinental play-offs under the new format.
An additional five nations ranked below Australia would reach the intercontinental play-offs in accordance with the June rankings, as shown below with the other lower ranked nations:
CAF:
Egypt – 40th
Algeria – 41st
Mali – 46th
Cote d’Ivoire – 52nd
Burkina Faso – 55th (Play-off chance)
CONCACAF:
Canada – 43rd (Hosts)
Panama – 61st
Jamaica – 62nd
El Salvador – 71st (Play-off chance)
Honduras – 80th (Play-off chance)
CONMEBOL:
Ecuador – 44th (Play-off chance)
OFC:
New Zealand – 103rd
Solomon Islands – 137th (Play-off chance)
*Based on the FIFA men’s ranking from June 23, 2022
Despite the AFC’s new qualification format increasing the Socceroos' chances of securing a place at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the introduction of an additional 16 teams to the tournament could make Australia's hopes for progressing beyond the group stage or the round of 32 exceedingly difficult, particularly if a total of 33 nations were to be ranked above them.
The Socceroos' unmatched feat of reaching the round of 16 in 2006 could prove harder to repeat by the 2026 finals, as the Aussies would have to persevere through two phases of the tournament to reach the same point.
Although this monumental challenge could lie ahead for Australia in four years time, one thing is for sure - if the Socceroos do manage to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, there is no doubt that they will not relinquish the underdog tag to sneak up and surprise some heavyweights of world football, just as they did in '06!
