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Markets uncertainty about rate direction

The facade of the US Federal Reserve

The facade of the US Federal Reserve .Getty Images Source: Getty Images

Global markets are seen drifting along, hampered by the growing fear of global economic downturn, fear of aggressive future US rate hike schedule, and retail sector's future profit warning.


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By Thomas Sung

Source: SBS



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Global markets are seen drifting along, hampered by the growing fear of global economic downturn, fear of aggressive future US rate hike schedule, and retail sector's future profit warning.


In the near term, it points to the growing realization that Santa Clause is not coming to town this year.

In the long and medium term, it points to the unchartered and difficult business environment in the new year.

Analysts will fix their eyes and ears on US Fed Chief Jerome Powell's press conference today.

Markets have priced in the factor that there will be a 70-80% chance of rate hike tomorrow, but whether Powell will reconfirm to the market again that the neutral outlook of rate movement is on the horizon. It remains to be seen.  

Anything that goes beyond expectation on the downside will certainly upset the market, leading to a repeat of "taper tantrum" as in May 2013, where stocks market suffered heavy fall, and bond yield surged, which meant no body was interested in buying anything, everyone was leaving.

As for our Australian listeners, while we are waiting for the US Fed's next move, we turn our eyes to the recent move by Westfarmers to sell its Coles business. There are smell of conspiracy in the air. But is that so?

Our guest, Morgan's Asian Desk Chief, Raymond Chan, says otherwise.


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