Federal Labor is facing a historic defeat in the Queensland seat of Longman and could also lose the Tasmanian seat of Braddon, according to new polling ahead of the Super Saturday by-elections.
YouGov Galaxy polling published by NewsCorp on Monday shows the opposition trailing 49 to 51 per cent in Longman, which was won by Labor's Susan Lamb at the last election.
In Braddon, support was 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis, with the Liberals' Brett Whiteley on the verge of winning back the seat he lost to Labor's Justine Keay in 2016.
Should Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull snatch either seat in the July 28 votes, it would be the first time a government has won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in 100 years.
In a further blow to Labor's Bill Shorten, the YouGov Galaxy polled also showed the opposition would be in a winning position in both Longman and Braddon if Anthony Albanese was the party's leader.
Mr Shorten told Labor faithful in Longman on Sunday it was not how you start, but how you finish that counts.
Bill Shorten at the launch of the Labor campaign in the seat of Longman. Source: AAP
He said investing more in health and education, as well as hip-pocket support for pensioners facing higher power bills, are more important priorities than a corporate tax cut for big banks.
Mr Turnbull says reducing company tax allows employers to invest in their businesses and employ more people.
Labor is "lying" about government cuts to services, and voters would penalise Mr Shorten for his misleading campaign, he said.
Labor appears on track to comfortably hold the seats of Perth and Fremantle in WA, while the Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie is strongly tipped to retain her South Australian seat of Mayo against a challenge by the Liberals' Georgina Downer.
Mr Shorten returns to Braddon on Monday, and Mr Turnbull will wrap up a tour of remote Northern Territory and northwest Queensland, where he is listening to concerns about child safety and a lack of economic opportunity.
Meanwhile, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has withdrawn from campaigning in Longman, with party candidate Matthew Stephen saying she is "exhausted and in need of some R&R''.
Malcolm Turnbull in Tennant Creek. Source: AAP
"There is a big year ahead, which will include a general election, and she wants to recharge over the next few weeks and come back bigger and stronger," he told The Australian.
Meanwhile, a separate Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the gap between the government and Labor narrowing.
The opposition now leads the coalition by just 51 to 49 per cent on a two-party basis, compared to 53 to 47 per cent a month ago.
Mr Turnbull has also increased his popularity over Mr Shorten, with 57 per cent of voters nominating him as preferred prime minister compared to just 30 per cent for the Labor leader.
