Over the past few weeks the world has watched in shock as Italy became the epicentre of the Coronavirus epidemic in Europe, with health care workers struggling to care for thousands of infected patients.
Anaesthetist Hamish Meares was one of those alarmed by the way the virus quickly overwhelmed the intensive care system in the hardest hit region of Lombardy.
"I was terrified to see Italian intensive care doctors had effectively run out of ventilators, which is the breathing machines to help people breathe when they get so sick from the virus. that is probably a doctor's worst nightmare because there's absolutely nothing you can do. "
Researchers from Macquarie University have modelled how the virus could spread in Australia, based on data gathered from Italy's outbreak.
If their projections are accurate, the nation's intensive care units could be overwhelmed by the pandemic within weeks if measures aren't taken to slow the spread. Professor Michael Jones from Macquarie University co-authored the report with Mr Meares.
"Within a very short time, within weeks, if the growth of the virus was to continue, and patients are hospitalized and a certain proportion of those end up in an ICU unit, that very quickly, there wouldn't be enough ICU beds for the demand under this scenario.''
There are just over 2.200 intensive care beds in the country, with almost half of those in New South Wales. The study, based off the Italian data, suggests at least ten per cent of all COVID patients will need intensive care.
Ventilator Source: Getty Images
Thus if coronavirus cases in Australia pass 22,000 in total, our intensive care units may not be able to care for every patient who needs it.
The modelling also shows the mortality rate of the disease in Italy averaged at 8.8% for the first two weeks of the outbreak, but after that, when the demand for beds became greater then those available, the mortality rate rose to an average of 22.7%.
"There's a point where they can't match the... what the patients need for the number of patients coming through. And at that point, things become very grim," said mr. Meares.
Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy says the government is moving with the health sector to at least triple the capacity of intensive care units.
‘’Compared to many countries are baseline ICU capacity is very good, much better per head of population then many other high income countries. But we have a very, very enthusiastic and committed intensive care community who are planning on very significant surges that we don't hope have to happen," he said.
Mr Meares notes the projections are a 'worst case scenario', and should be a reminder to all Australians about why the population must 'flatten the curve' and embrace social distancing.
Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy. Source: AAP
"Now if we flatten the curve, everything I've said is not valid, we'll all be okay. Every single person, We are all in this bus, we're all in this boat together. And we all, every single one is responsible for what happens. And so we need to pull together as a country. Right now we need to get serious."
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