On May 26th 2014, the BJP’s candidate Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s 14th Prime Minister at the iconic Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi after his party won the mandate in India with a clear majority.
Four years later, as India faces another general election within a year, many are asking if he will be re-elected as the country’s prime minister in 2019.
Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, which far exceeded all predictions in 2014 by winning a clear majority of 282 seats in the 543 seat lower house, has organised a grand celebration in the country’s capital, New Delhi on Saturday.
On the same day, the party will release a short video which stands out for its tagline - "Saaf Niyat, Sahi Vikas" (Clean Intentions, Right Development) and the punchline - "2019 Mein Phir Modi Sarkar"(Another Modi government in 2019) – an extension of the BJP's slogan for the 2014 elections, "Abki Baar Modi Sarkar" (This time, Modi government).
But Saturday will not mark the beginning of preparations for the next general election for the party.
While its President, Amit Shah, will address the media highlighting the government’s achievements, Prime Minister Modi will be away from the capital, addressing a public function in the eastern state of Odisha, a state which only has one BJP MP.
Shiv Vishwanathan, a sociologist and a regular political columnist says, “The BJP has been preparing for another Modi government for a long time now. Their strategy has never been for one-term.”
DEMONETISATION HASN’T HURT MODI
Narendra Modi is seeking re-election in the post-demonetisation atmosphere of India. Source: AAP Image/ EPA/JAIPAL SINGH
While many observers say it did not work in achieving its main purpose, and despite all the chaos surrounding the move, Modi is still perceived to be a ‘do-er’ by the larger population.
“It did not work in achieving its primary purpose but it did not hurt Modi”, says Milan Vaishnav, Director and Senior Fellow, South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. He adds “It may have even helped his standing as a leader unafraid to tackle corruption.”
Shiv Vishwanathan says that despite demonetisation breaking the informal sector, those affected still ‘see Modi as an authentic leader’.
“He is the man who is constantly doing something. Those who were affected, those who are poor and in the informal sector see him as masculine, and doing something. When they see him in action, they feel he is doing something and that makes them feel Modi is an authentic leader.
But he notes: “There has been a lot of activity in last four years but there’s been no achievement. It is all melodrama without achievement.”
WILL MODI BE RE-ELECTED?
Narendra Modi (R ) after taking the oath as India's new Prime Minister at the presidential palace in New Delhi, India on 26 May 2014. Source: AAP Image/ EPA/HARISH TYAGI
“If the election were held today, the received wisdom is that the BJP would come back without a majority but with a commanding seat total. They would require more friends and allies to form the government,” notes Milan Vaishnav.
To Modi’s benefit, the fractured opposition in India is terribly ‘lagging behind’, Vishwanathan says.
“Congress is clueless. The rest of the regional stalwarts can't think beyond their regional power. A formidable opposition would have formulated a strategy to counter Modi two years ago. But nothing of the sort has happened. What we see right now is a sentiment and sentiment is no substitute for a strategy.”
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