After the seven-phase rounds of voting ended on Sunday evening, most of the exit polls by Indian news channels were predicting NDA’s victory.
If the exit polls are right, the BJP and its allies will get between 277 to 353 seats in the 543 seat lower house of parliament, while the Congress-led UPA is projected to get between 94-132 seats.
The Times Now-VMR poll has given 306 seats to the NDA and 132 seats to UPA. The SP-BSP coalition or MahaGathBandhan will get 20 seats that come from Uttar Pradesh. 84 seats will go to others, namely JDS, TMC, TDP etc.
Today’s Chanakya, known for giving bumper seats to the BJP in every poll, has predicted a historic victory for the NDA with 350 seats with 300 seats to the BJP alone. UPA, according to Today’s Chanakya, will slip back to number three with only 95 seats as others will have more seats (97).
C-voter has been moderate in its predictions for an NDA victory. Though it is predicting a comeback for Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a clear majority (287), the number of seats is less than the 2014 elections. UPA will get 128 seats, and SP-BSP alliance will manage 40 seats. Others have a chance to win on 87 seats, according to the C-Voter.
Indian voters hold their voting slips as they stand in a queue to cast their votes. Source: AAP
ABP-Nielsen is the only exit polls that are predicting a simple majority for the BJP-led NDA with 277 seats, much less than last time. BJP had won 282 seats alone in 2014. UPA will manage 130 seats according to the ABP-Nielsen survey, while others will get 135.
AXIS My India – India Today exit polls have predicted the most seats to NDA (353). According to this survey, MahaGathBandhan will get only 13 seats in UP, and Congress-led UPA will be restricted at a mere 94. 82 seats will go to the others.
Many had expressed doubts over the credibility of these exit polls siting previous experiences when the polls had got it wrong.
Election officers seal an electronic voting machine at the end of polling in Varanasi, India Source: AAP
In 2004, the BJP-led NDA was predicted to return to power with a massive victory by most of the exit polls which were proven wrong by the UPA victory.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee has brushed exit polls aside as ‘gossip.’
“I don’t trust Exit Poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together,” Ms Bannerjee tweeted.
Renowned commentator Shobha De says the poll predictions are “nearly always wrong”.
The Australian exit poll experience
Delhi-based Journalist Narendra Nath has a word of caution for the exit polls believer, citing the Australian experience with exit polls to express doubts over exit polls in India.
“Australia has far fewer voters than India, and they got it wrong. Results have proven the last 56 opinion and exit polls wrong. I shall not suggest taking a stand over exit polls.”
However, BJP supporters are elated over the exit polls.
Sydney-based Vipul Marwah of Friends of BJP, Australia, is very positive about the exit polls, saying he believes they are a true reflection of actual results.
Who will be India's next Prime Minister? Source: AAP
“The BJP is winning big in West Bengal. They have made a comeback in MP, Gujarat and Rajasthan after losing in state elections. They are not losing much in UP either. They are doing very good in Karnataka and Maharashtra. So, I have no reason to doubt these exit polls,” Mr Marwah told SBS Hindi.
When asked about the Australian exit polls getting it wrong, Mr Marwah says the Indian scenario is different.
“The number of voters is a huge difference between the two countries. Then, the exit polls in Australia are phone-based while in India, the survey is ground-based.
"Here 40 per cent voters had voted pre-poll whereas in India voters come out and vote on the same day. So the two experiences cannot be compared,” he said.
