Tej zaum cov kev yug me nyuam tsawg yuav 'Yog cov kev puas tsuaj' rau Australia lub neej pem suab.

Tej nqe siv ua lub neej, tej vaj tse nyob, huab cua pauv hloov tab tom ua rau muaj me nyuam neeg Australia tsawg lawm. Puas tsim nyog peb txhawj tias cov kev yug me nyuam tsawg no tsam ntev ntxiv tuaj yuav ua rau muaj ntau yam teeb meem?

People are seen walking along a riverbank during a festival.

Australia's population could decline in the coming decades, with fewer babies born compared to five years ago. Credit: AAP

Mloog tau tej zaj lus thiab lwm yam xov xwm ua lus Hmoob tau ntawm SBS Hmong.

Tej zaum Australia tab tom yuav ntsib tej xwm txheej muaj pej xeem tsawg vim rau qhov zoo li muaj neeg tas sim neej ntau dua cov neeg yug, uas ntev ntxiv tuaj ntshe yuav ua rau muaj teeb meem rau Australia tej neeg ua hauj lwm thiab lagluam.

Raws li tau muaj ib co kev tshuaj ntsuam los ntawm lub tuam txhab nyiaj KPMG tau txheeb tau ces xyoo 2024 no tau yug me nyuam tsawg dua xyoo ua ntej dhau los lawm, thiab tseem yug tsawg dua tej yug ua ntej yuav muaj kab mob COVID-19 kis thoob ntuj thiab.

Txhais tias tam sim no Australia yog lub teb chaws uas muaj tej pej xeem muaj hnoob nyoog zuj zus tuaj, thiab yog ''lub tsam thawj tseem ceeb'' uas yuav tau los tswj peb txoj kev ua lub neej lawm.

Australia cov kev pauv hloov rau tej kab theem yug me nyuam

KPMG cov kev tshuaj ntsuam tau txheeb txog tej xov xwm yug me nyuam ntawm lub koom haum Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) thiab tau txheeb txog Australia tej kab theem muaj peev xwm muaj taus me nyuam, uas xam raws tus zauv theem nrab ntawm tej me nyuam uas ib tug poj niam twg yug tau ntawm nws lub neej.

Ces raws li KPMG hais ces tam sim no Australia cov kab theem muaj tau me nyuam tsuas nyob rau ntawm 1.51 xyoo 2024, uas qes dua 2.1 uas yog ib tug kab theem uas tsim nyog muaj mas thiaj tswj tau tej pej xeem cov kev loj hlob.
Tsaib no ces tsuas yus tau tej me nyuam thoob teb chaws txog li 292,500 tus xwb, tab sis yog piv rau ntau xyoo dhau los (2013-2019) ces ib lub xyoos twg tseem yug coob dua 300,000 tus.

Cov kev tshuaj ntsuam no tau txheeb tau tias tab tom muaj cov kab theem yug me nyuam tsawg tuaj ntxiv hauv tej nroog piv rau tej neeg nyob tej zos cheeb tsam toj siab/yaj sab, uas pom tias tau muaj cov kev yug me nyuam hauv tej nroog tsawg txog 6.5 feem pua txij xyoo 2019 txog 2024 lawm.

Terry Rawnsley uas yog KPMG tus urban economist tau hais tias nyiaj txiaj thiab tej nqe siv ua lub neej hauv tej nroog loj yog ntau yam ua rau muaj neeg yug me nyuam tsawg lawm.

Nws tau hais tias ''Tej nqe ntiav tsev kim, tej nqe them yuav tsev, tej nqe tu/zov me nyuam hauv tej nroog yog tej ua rau muaj teeb meem rau sawv daws cov kev npaj yug me nyuam los yog pib lawv lub neej,''

"Ua ke no los kuj pom tias tej zos cheeb tsam tuaj ntug nrog/zos toj siab yog cov chaw uas tej neeg nyiam nyob, ua hauj lwm thiab pib lub neej, vim rau qhov cov kev muaj peev xwm yuav tau tsev nyob yog tej yam tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau coob leej ntau tus neeg Australia.''
A data table showing number of births in 2019 and 2024 in various areas of Australia.
Muaj neeg yug me nyuam tsawg tuaj ntxiv ntawm Australia txog 3.8 feem pua txij xyoo 2019 txog 2024 lawm. Source: SBS
Liz Allen uas yog ib tug demographer ntawm tsev kawm qib siab Australia National University (ANU) lub chaw teeb txheeb Centre for Social Policy Research tau hais tias tej kev tshuaj ntsuam no tsuas ntsuam raws li tej xov xwm tau thaum ntxov xwb, tseem tsis tau yog tej statistics meej tiag, thiab ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb heev rau Australia tej pej xeem heev.

Nws tau hais tias Australia cov kab theem yug me nyuam no ces yeej tau muaj tsawg zuj zus tsawg tshaj qhov yuav pab kom rov qab yug coob tuaj ntxiv txij li lub caij xyoo 1970, thiab tam sim no ces pob rau lub caij ''nyuaj lawm.''

''Zoo li muaj neeg yug me nyuam tsawg heev li lawm, cev cov kev yuav rov qab muaj peev xwm yug tau me nyuam li qub thiaj yog tej yam ua tau nyuaj heev li lawm,''

"Ces thiaj li yuav tsum tau muaj cov kev kho dua tej cai tshiab thiab nom tswv yuav tsum tau raus tes pab lawm xwb.''

Allen tau hais tias tej zaum yeej muaj tej hluas neeg Australia coob heev xav muaj me nyuam thiab, tab sis kuj tau hloov lawv tej tswv yim los sis yog txiav txim siab tsis yuav me nyuam vim muaj ntau yam teeb meem cuam tshuam rau cov kev muaj me nyuam, tej zaum kuj tim tej hauj lwm thiab nyiaj txiaj los sis tim cov kev txhawj xeeb txog tej ib puag ncig.
Allen thiaj piav tias tej xwm txheej no ''thiaj ua rau lawv tsis muaj kev xaiv lawm.''

''Lub ntsiab tseeb tiag ntawm tej xwm txheej no ces yog zoo li tag kev cia siab, los sis muaj kev cia siab tsawg zuj zus lawm, thiab kuj muaj txoj kev txhawj xeeb thiab kev ntshai tsis paub tias xyov lub neej pem suab yuav zoo li cas.''

''Tsis tas li ntawd los yeej muaj ib co teeb meem tseem ceeb heev rau neeg Australia; tsis hais yog cov kev muaj peev xwm yuav tau tsev nyob, tsis paub tias tej lagluam zoo li cas thiab puas yuav khwv tau nyiaj siv, cov kev tsis tau txais vaj huam sib luag ntawm poj niam/txiv neej (gender inequality) thiab tej xwm txheej huab cua pauv hloov sib sau ua ke, tej no thiaj yog tej cuam tshuam rau tej neeg cov kev txiav txim siab thaum xav tias seb puas yuav yug ib tug me nyuam los sis puas yug me nyuam ntxiv.''

Vim li cas cov kab theem yug me nyuam thiaj tseem ceeb?

Tej kev txhawj xeeb tseem ceeb txog cov kab theem yug me nyuam no yeej muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov kev pab kom muaj pej xeem coob tuaj ntxiv thiab tej pej xeem uas muaj hnoob nyoog tuaj ntxiv lawm.

Allen tau hais tias txog lub caij nrab xyoo 2050s ces yuav muaj neeg tas sim neej coob tshaj tej neeg yug tshiab ntawm Australia lawm, ces thiaj yuav ua rau muaj tej pej xeem tsawg lawm. Qhov no thiaj yog ''ib qho teeb meem txaus txhawj xeeb tiag.''

Txhais tias yauv muaj neeg tsawg zog mus ua hauj lwm thiab muaj neeg them se tsawg ntawm Australia lawm, ces yuav ua rau muaj teeb meem rau tej healthcare system thiab tsoom fwv tej kev pab cuam rau zej tsoom.
Line graph illustrating Australia's declining birth rate from 2013 to 2024.
Australia cov kab theem uas tej poj niam tseem yug tau me nyuam ntawd tau yug me nyuam tsawg zuj zus txij li xyoo 2023 lawm thiab tseem yug tsawg tshaj tej yug rau lub caij xyoo 2013 lawm thiab. Source: SBS
Allen thiaj tau hais tias "Tam sim no ces tsoom fwv tej nyiaj tau coj los siv ua ntau yam ntawd ces yeej yog tau los ntawm tej se uas tej neeg ntiag tug ua hauj lwm khwv nyiaj them se xwb,''

''Txhais tias yog peb muaj tej pem xeem muaj hnoob nyoog coob thiab muaj tej neeg uas tseem muaj cov hnoob nyoog ua tau hauj lwm tsawg, ces yuav ua rau tsoom fwv muaj nyiaj tsawg lawm.

''Ces peb thiaj yuav tau them ntau yam kim tuaj ntxiv vim rau qhov tsoom fwv muaj nyiaj tsawg coj los siv rau yav tom ntej lawm.''

Allen ntseeg tias ntshe Australia yuav 'tsis muaj peev xwm rov qab los yug me nyuam coob'' raws tus zauv theem nrab uas tej poj niam yug lawm 'yog tias tsis los nrog xyuas kom muaj cov kev pauv hloov rau tej policies' li yuav/ntiav tau vajtse tse nyob, thiab tau txais kev ruaj ntseg rau kev ua hauj lwm/khw nyiaj, tau txais vaj huam sib luag rau poj niam/txiv neej, thiab daws tej xwm txheej huab cua pauv hloov.
Tab sis Rawnsley tau hais tias tej xov xwm no yeej tau qhia tias ''tej zaum tseem yuav muaj kev cia siab'' rau cov kab theem yug me nyuam tias tej zaum yuav rov qab yug me nyuam coob tuaj ntxiv yog tias tej neeg khwv tau nyiaj ntau tuaj ntxiv kom txaus siv.

''Txawm tias tseem muaj neeg Australia coob heev tseem ncua tsis tau xav muaj me nyuam vim muaj nuj nqe siv ua lub neej ntau yam, ces tej neeg uas muaj nyiaj ntau zog khaws cia hauv txhab nyiaj tam sim no thiaj xav rov qab muaj me nyuam ntxiv lawm. Ces thiaj pom tias rov qab xav muaj neeg yug me nyuam lawm, thiab tej zaum yuav rov qab muaj neeg yug me yuam txog 300,000 tus rau xyoo tom ntej no.''

"Txawm li cas los ntshe tseem yuav tshuav ib ntus ntxiv ua ntej uas peb yuav yug tau me nyuam coob tshaj 350,000 tus kom thiaj muaj peev xwm ua tau lub neej txuas ntxiv rau tiam neej 21 no.''

Ntiaj teb cov kab theem yug me nyuam

Australia tsis yog tib lub teb chaws thiaj ntsib cov teeb meem nyuaj ntau yam rau nws tej pej xeem uas laus zuj zus tuaj no xwb.

Raws li lub koom haum koom tes lagluam thiab txhim kho (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - OECD) tsab ntawv cej luam xyoo 2024 qhia, ces thoob plaws rau cov teb chaws OECD no yeej muaj cov kab theem uas tej poj niam yug me nyuam tsawg uas tau nqes ntawm 3.3 los ua 1.5 txij li xyoo 1960 txog rau xyoo 2022 lawm.

Kaus Lim qab teb (South Korea) ces yog lub teb chaws uas muaj cov kab theem tej poj niam yug me nyuam tsawg tshaj plaws, vim tsuas muaj ib tug poj niam twg yug me nyuam txog li 0.7 tus xyoo 2023 xwb.

Raws li Allen tau hais ces "Australia los yeej zoo tib yam li feem coob ntawm ntiaj teb thiab uas yuav ntsib kev puas tsuaj rau tib neeg thiab.''

"Qhov teeb meem tiag ces yog muaj cov kev yug me nyuam tsawg heev tam sim no lawm ces thiaj yuav ua rau peb ntsib ntau yam teeb meem.

''Tam sim no ces peb poob rau lub tsam thawj nyuaj uas tsuas yug tsawg zuj zus tuaj ...li plas toj ntxhab uas nce tsis tau lawm, los sis nyog ntawm seb peb ho puas yuav los ua ib yam dab tsi daws tej xwm txheej no xwb, tab sis kuv yeej tsis pom tias peb ua ib yam dab tsi coj los pab kom peb ntxeem dhau tej xwm txheej no li.''

Mloog tau xov xwm tshiab ntawm SBS Hmongdownload SBS Adio app thiab caum SBS Hmong Facebook page.

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By Jessica Bahr
Presented by Vixay Vue
Source: SBS

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Tej zaum cov kev yug me nyuam tsawg yuav 'Yog cov kev puas tsuaj' rau Australia lub neej pem suab. | SBS Hmong