Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's leadership status has been threatened by the latest Newspoll, which shows the Coalition suffering its 29th consecutive defeat in the poll against Labor.
That is one short of the number cited by Mr Turnbull as one of his reasons for toppling predecessor Tony Abbott in 2015. The latest results come as shock to the Coalition, which had hoped Labor's controversial tax policy affecting pensioners would lead to an electoral backlash.
The latest Newspoll conducted over the weekend reveals the only change in voting patterns is a slight swing towards Labor. Labor's primary vote increased by a point to 39 per cent, while the Coalition remained on 37. It is the first time since September 2015 -- when Malcolm Turnbull successfully challenged Tony Abbott for the leadership -- that Labor's primary vote has been that high.
Facing reporters, the Prime Minister expected the question and tried his best to deflect it.
(Reporter:) "Prime Minister, 29 Newspolls, not good news. How are you feeling?"
(Turnbull:) "Why are you smiling then if it's not good news? You're so pleased. You're so pleased. And I know why: because you're so happy about all the jobs we've created, because you are not distracted by polls. You know that we have created 420,700 jobs in Australia in the last year. And you know, you know, that that's the number that we're focused on. We're focused on creating opportunities for Australians. We're focused on getting taxes down. We're seeking to reduce business taxes to allow Australian businesses to invest and compete and create even more good jobs that will make you smile even more. And that's what we're doing. That's our commitment. Yes, Andrew Probyn ..." (taking the next question ...)
Three questions later, Mr Turnbull ended the press conference.
Newspoll shows him still the country's preferred prime minister, leading Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 39 per cent to 36. But Mr Turnbull is now only one loss away from losing 30 straight Newspolls, the measuring stick he used to justify toppling Mr Abbott as prime minister in 2015.
Late last year, the Prime Minister admitted in an interview he regretted stating that standard as the leadership test, saying economic leadership and governance should be factors, too. Last month, in another interview, he updated his position, saying he believed party-room support should be the only test of leadership. Liberal senator Eric Abetz has told Sky News the polls are a wake-up call but he believes the results can be turned around before the next federal election.
"For me, I'm in politics to be involved in getting the right policy settings to ensure that the Australian people are given the best possible government, and, currently, we are lagging in the polls. And as a government, we need to address that, ask the question why and deal with it. We still have another 12 to 18 months to deal with it(before the next election), and I'm confident that we as a Coalition will be able to deal with these matters."
Amanda Vanstone, an immigration minister in John Howard's Liberal government, says the 30-Newspoll test had little to do with why Tony Abbott lost the prime ministership. In an opinion piece for Fairfax Media, she writes his personality and leadership style were more significant factors.
"Australia had a budget in need of repair and no clear narrative on how to get the economy into better shape. The prime minister was indulging himself, big-time, and riding roughshod over cabinet with his now infamous captain's picks.* Worse, Abbott was blind to the problem. He never really grasped the horror he created. He still doesn't. His own office was a key part of the problem. To say the chief of staff was disliked by cabinet members and the party room is to grossly understate the problem."
Tony Abbott has denied those criticisms. He responded with this statement posted on Twitter.
"Nasty piece from Amanda Vanstone today. What would she know about my office? She never, ever dealt with it."
Coalition MPs had been hoping Labor's plan to axe tax-credit refunds for more than a million retirees would lead to a slide for the Opposition in the Newspoll. Labor's plan would affect 237,000 pensioners who pay little or no tax and could no longer claim a cash refund from the Tax Office when their franking credits surpass the tax they pay. The Newspoll figures show only 33 per cent of voters favour the policy, with 50 per cent opposed and 17 per cent undecided.
Mr Turnbull used parliamentary question time to step up his attack against the policy.
(Turnbull:) "What was an act of compassion and fairness in 1998 is now, according to the honourable members opposite, a tax rort, a loophole, a scandal that has to be put an end to. It is an insult to hard-working Australians who've saved through their lives to be financially independent. It is robbing them, it is picking their pockets, when they deserve our respect." (Speaker:) "The Prime Minister's time has concluded."
