US President Donald Trump's announcement to begin a full and rapid withdraw of US troops from in the Kurdish region in northern Syria - declaring that their mission in defeating IS has been accomplished and that it was "time for others to finally fight" - has taken everyone by surprise.
"After historic victories against ISIS, it’s time to bring our great young people home!", President Trump Tweeted saying it is time for the US troops to go home.
But as the White House administration reels from the shock resignations of both Brett McGurk, the US envoy to the global coalition fighting IS and US Defence Secretary, James Mattis, there's confusion and condemnation in government departments as well as the US Senate over the lack of consultation over Trump's decision to pull out of Syria.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Armed Services Committee and usually a Trump supporter, called the decision a 'disaster' saying Trump's decision could undo the progress made against IS.
"I'll have to say if Trump withdraws from Syria and they (IS) do come back like I think they will, he'll be one of the reasons they came back," Senator Graham said.
Journalist and political analysts on Kurdish affairs and the Middle East, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, has just visited Northern Syria and warns that the pullout from Syria will "bring chaos and turmoil to the region".
The Kurdish-led alliance, the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) has played a major role in fighting IS in northern Syria after it took over much of the region four years ago. It's now warning that IS could "revive itself again."
Mr van Wilgenburg told SBS Kurdish that this move by President Trump "will also be very damaging to US credibility in the region, because people will question the US commitment to its allies."
[Photo: Journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg during his recent visit to Northern Syria near the Turkish border on Tel Abyad]
There's concern the withdrawal will create a vacuum in the region that may be filled by a regrouping of IS or a potential Turkish occupation of Northern Syria, which will both eventuate in a further humanitarian crisis.
Christian minorities, as well as other ethnic and religious groups, are believed to be at risk as a result of US troop withdrawal from the region. The Christian minorities in the SDF and Kurdish controlled areas of north and north-eastern Syria have enjoyed some protection and security which will be jeopardised, in the absence of US troops.
"Nobody expected this to happen," said Mr van Wilgenburg. "Even the US army itself wasn’t ready for this. They didn’t expect the US to stay forever but this has come as a shock."
"I think at the moment the SDF are reorganising and seeing their options, but I think the best option they have at the moment is to talk to the Syrian government to prevent a Turkish attack on the border areas which would result in massive displacement," he said.
[Photo: Sunday Mass at a Church in Kurdish controlled Kobani (credit: W. van Wilgenburg)]
IS not defeated
Wladimir van Wilgenburg told SBS Kurdish that this could "lead to massive displacement of Kurds in Syria, it could create also another refugee crisis, it could create...problems for the KRG [Kurdistan Regional Government (Iraq)],".
"There’s still a large number of IS fighters in the area, in Deir Al Zour. They were nearly defeated by now - if the US army withdraws this is going to be good for IS because it will benefit from the chaos," he said.
There are already over one million Syrian refugees in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
"It's going to be complicated, and I think ISIS is going to benefit from this chaos to reorganise in Syria, and it's also dangerous for instance because you have a lot of oil fields in Deir Al Zour, which are now under SDF control..." says Mr van Wilgenburg.
"But perhaps with this instability IS could try to attack those oil fields. For instance, if Turkey attacks, IS could attack also. But it really depends on what the US is going to do and whether air strikes will continue or not."
