A few months ago, if I had attempted to predict the political winners in the upcoming assembly elections in Punjab my very prediction would have been that Akalis would struggle to regain power in Punjab on the back of a massive anti-incumbency sentiment prevailing against them.
Congress, in my opinion, would have had nothing to lose and I would have urged them to go all out to woo the people of Punjab and not be held back by their tarnished 'brand' at a more national level. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in my view would have been the front-runner, and the dark horse, in this political race in Punjab a few months ago – a grass roots level alternative that the drug-plagued, and economy drenched population of Punjab is desperate for.
Now, only a few months out from the Punjab elections, and the political lay of the land in Punjab seems to have turned itself on its head, with a very real outside chance that the Akalis may form government again in 2017. They will not do so courtesy any of their own merits or virtues (which they seem to lack in abundance in my view), rather, they would achieve this feat on the back of other political parties in Punjab self-imploding, leaving no clear majority set-up to vote for other than the Akalis. Regrettably so.
The Aam Aadmi Party opened up its campaign in Punjab a few months ago with a bang. Standing up on a stage at Muktsar, Arvind Kejriwal lashed out against the incumbent government of Punjab and promised prosperity, and riddance to the people of Punjab of all their ailments – political, social, and economic. The people Punjab looked up to him after that speech. A messiah had emerged, they thought. Move ahead six months, and the AAP is now facing a severe crisis of its own in Punjab. It's identity, it's unity, it's leadership, and it's intentions in Punjab are all under the scanner as it erodes and breaks-up bit by bit within itself.
As I write these lines, the disenchanted former AAP convenor in Punjab Sucha Singh Chottepur is about to announce a new political outfit of his own citing criticism about Arvind Kejriwal's leadership of the AAP in recent times. Bhagwant Mann's misdemeanours in public, and in parliament have taken the sheen off the AAP in Punjab. AAP's inability to recruit Navjot Sidhu, and Sidhu's public lambasting of Arvind Kejriwal, has further tainted the AAP's mettle in Punjab. Infighting within its ranks is rampant, and often public.
But the AAP's ordeals in Punjab do not just end there. Kejriwal and the AAP are being widely criticised in media these days for their lacklustre governance in Delhi. The AAP is not helping its cause in Punjab by projecting itself as a blame-shifting political entity that appears to shirk accountability.
The AAP is being fast associated with mere political grandstanding and outbursts, without any rigour or strategy towards impacting a meaningful change for the citizens. This image is bound to hurt its prospects in Punjab in the upcoming elections.
On the other hand, the Congress party in Punjab is trying keeps on playing it 'safe'. In my opinion, for political outfit that is fighting for survival at a national front, playing it 'safe' will not cut it for the Congress in Punjab. Their campaign so far has lacked the 'bite' that was needed to dethrone the Akalis, and hush away the other challenger in the AAP.
Playing it 'safe' does not distinguish the Congress party markedly enough from the Akalis in the eyes of the public of Punjab. The devil in a different guise, it may seem. If the Congress is serious about getting into power in Punjab, its needs to step up its call to action and speak to Punjabis in a language that is straight, factual, and credible. It will have to shun the bells and whistles associated with the political hierarchies in its ranks and reach out to the people of Punjab.
It has a real opportunity to succeed in Punjab, and in doing so perhaps it may revive brand 'Congress' at a national level too. But there are way too many demons from its past haunting its image, and it will take a step change and a long hard look at itself for Punjab Congress to redefine itself and make itself relevant again in a political context.
Punjab, historically, has been a two party-based political set-up yoyoing between the Akalis and the Congress. However, times have changed. Riding on a wave of anti-incumbency against the Akalis, will not be enough to leapfrog the Congress into more anymore. The AAP started off well in Punjab but is fast running out of steam, and credibility. It still remains the dark horse, though, in Punjab. Awaaz-e-Punjab and any other minor outfits that may emerge in Punjab, carry significant potential to dent the chances of the AAP and the Congress to dethrone the Akalis.
In the 2002 winter Olympics, Australian speed skater Stephen Bradbury won a gold medal not because he was the fastest in the race, but because he was the last man standing in the race as all other opponents had fallen prior to reaching the finish line.
And in all this political mayhem, the Akalis may enjoy the same fate in Punjab in 2017. They may well be the 'last man standing' to cross the finish line.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of SBS Punjab. SBS Punjabi does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
