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Jobs figures could add to RBA's headache

Thursday's crucial jobs figures could add to the Reserve Bank's headaches if they again prove unexpectedly weak.

Pedestrians walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Thursday's crucial jobs figures could add to the Reserve Bank's headaches. (AAP)

Economic figures due for release in the coming week could exacerbate the dilemma facing the Reserve Bank, particularly if employment figures again prove unexpectedly weak.

Central Bank governor Philip Lowe made it clear last week his concerns about the red-hot property markets in Sydney and Melbourne while expressing a cautious note about the rest of the economy.

It other words, while the general economy could need a helping lift from a lower cash rate, his hands are tied by a rampant housing market.

However, Dr Lowe is hopeful tighter prudential rules recently announced by regulators will help to cool the housing issue, although reports suggest Saturday's pre-Easter clearance rates in both Sydney and Melbourne house auctions stepped up another gear.

Monday's housing finance figures for February, and before the new prudential rules were announced, will show whether investors are growing in dominance.

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In January, the value of loans for owner-occupied housing fell by 0.2 per cent but grew by 4.2 per cent for those borrowed by investors.

There is a range of weekly and monthly confidence surveys for both consumers and business over Tuesday and Wednesday and before Thursday's jobs figures.

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has been trending downwards since the beginning of the year and now stands at its lowest level since October 2015.

It tied in with other data released last week which showed annual retail spending has slowed to a pace not seen in almost four years.

Economists at Commonwealth Bank expect Thursday's labour force figures to show a solid 25,000 rise in the number of people employed in March after the unexpected 6400 drop in February, which pushed up the jobless rate to 5.9 per cent and its highest level in just over a year.

They say indicators of future employment, like job advertisements, are suggesting positive outcomes in the months ahead, so the Reserve Bank "would be sensitive to a further deterioration in labour market conditions".


2 min read

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Source: AAP



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