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Labor's housing push could win Northcote

Labor has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the Northcote by-election, with a strong push on housing, which could win the seat, experts say.

Labor will claim a narrow victory in the Northcote by-election after throwing buckets of money and resources at the marginal inner-Melbourne seat, political pundits predict.

There are 12 candidates for Saturday's poll but it's really a two-horse race between Labor's Clare Burns and the Greens' Lidia Thorpe.

Labor has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the election, brought on by the sudden cancer death of government MP Fiona Richardson in August.

Most of the money has focused on the hot issue of housing across the electorate where many residents are renting, with a high number of young people living in share houses.

"I'm inclined to think Labor will narrowly hold the seat," Deakin University political lecturer Geoffrey Robinson told AAP.

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"Labor have put an enormous amount of resources into it, it's a real test from the state Labor party point of view of their ability to hold the Greens back."

By focusing on housing affordability and levelling the rental playing field, Labor could woo younger voters who maybe would have voted Green, Dr Robinson said.

The Greens have been slowly building support in Northcote, as well as in Brunswick and Richmond.

They won the seat of Melbourne in 2014, and at the 2016 federal election many of the booths across Northcote turned Green.

Monash University's Zareh Ghazarian also thinks Labor will hold on.

But the by-election is setting a template on how Labor can mitigate the Greens threat in inner-Melbourne while not alienating a more conservative core constituency in the outer suburbs, he added.

"It's OK, they can do it this time because it's a by-election, the entire debate is about the seat itself," Dr Ghazarian said.

"But I think next year when we've got the general election they'll be under a lot of pressure to reconcile these two policy demands."

The Greens are increasingly looking like a viable alternative to voters, Dr Ghazarian said.

"Victoria is the happiest hunting ground for the Greens."

But they are also a part of a wider move against the two major parties.

"One Nation is doing the same on the right and the major parties are finding themselves stuck," Dr Ghazarian said.

"Do they go further to the extremes of the political spectrum to try and get these voters back into their fold? Or do they focus more on the marginal seats and undecided voters?"

Premier Daniel Andrews on Friday made a last-minute pitch to voters.

"We need Labor members in a Labor government that can actually get things done," he told reporters.

The Liberal party is not contesting the by-election.

If successful, Ms Thorpe would be the first Aboriginal woman elected to Victorian parliament.


3 min read

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Source: AAP



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