A bioterrorist attack or swine flu-like pandemic.
Incursion of a new wheat disease or fruit fly crippling crops.
An outbreak of foot and mouth or bluetongue disease, devastating farmers.
Some scenarios sound like a plot from a Hollywood disaster movie, but these "megashocks" could pose a real threat to Australian biosecurity, the CSIRO says.
In its report, Australia's Biosecurity Future, released on Tuesday, the scientific body outlines 12 potential megashocks it thinks could hit Australia in the next 20 or 30 years.
It was written as a collaboration between the CSIRO, Animal Health Australia, Plant Biosecurity CRC, and the Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre.
'Safer to pre-empt biosecurity issues'
CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship Science Director Gary Fitt said it would safer to pre-empt biosecurity issues than deal with the consequences later on.
Dr Fitt said although the news was dominated by the Ebola outbreak, other underreported diseases were far more threatening to Australia.
“Farmers in Katherine in the northern Territory are dealing with an outbreak of a new disease - Cucumber Green Mottle Mosaic virus,” he said.
“While not fatal to people like Ebola, this virus is devastating their crops which has severe financial impacts.”
Dr Fitt said other future issues, such as the decline in European honey bee populations across Australia, could cost up to $6 billion.
“Losing this free pollination service would severely impact production of several fruit and vegetable including avocado and almonds,” he said.
The report also identified a number of global megatrends, pointing to changes which will affect biosecurity.
Producing food for the growing global population
One of the changes included the need for producing more food for the growing global population.
“Understanding the biosecurity megatrends identified in the report will help Australia prepare forand deal with the pests and diseases that threaten our farming sector, environment and people,” Dr Fitt said.
Mr Fitt said they do not want to present a "doom-and-gloom" view of Australia's biosecurity.
But Dr Fitt believes any of these shocks could happen, and the economic impact would run into the tens of billions of dollars.
A foot-and-mouth outbreak could cost $50 billion over 10 years, while the loss of pollinating European honey bees to disease would cost farmers $4 billion to $6 billion annually in lost production.
"If you look at Australian agriculture, it's worth $55 billion to $60 billion annually," he told AAP.
"It's a significant asset that we're trying to protect, without thinking of human health or the environment."
The CSIRO said minimising the managing risks while taking advantage of the opportunities that successful biosecurity presents would only be possible through a coordinated collaboration between the government, industries, scientists as well as the general public.
“Australia should not rely on its relatively fortunate history and become complacent in the face of growing biosecurity challenges,” Professor Kurt Zuelke, Director CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship and Australian Animal Health Laboratory, said.
“Minimising and managing risks while taking advantage of the opportunities that a successful biosecurity system presents will only be possible through a coordinated approach involving government, industry, scientists and the general public – a shared responsibility.”.
The 12 megashocks Australia may face
- Nationwide incursion of new exotic wheat stem rust
- Decline in pollination as disease hits European honey bees
- Nationwide incursion of new exotic fruit fly
- Outbreak of foot and mouth disease
- Bluetongue disease outbreak across Australia's sheep-producing regions
- Spread of highly virulent rust
- Government walks away from environmental biosecurity
- Invasion of black-striped mussel impacting marine and aquaculture industries
- Outbreak of infectious salmon anaemia affected aquaculture production
- Nationwide zoonotic disease epidemic (diseases transmitted between animals and humans)
- Bioterrorist attack
- Rapid spike in antibiotic resistance
(Source: CSIRO report Australia's Biosecurity Future)
