Afghan war strategy 'will not change'

President Barack Obama has made it clear his Afghan war strategy will not change, even after a change in its leadership and troubling signs of potential failure.

He's chosen an architect of the Afghan campaign, General David Petraeus, to take over after General Stanley McChrystal was forced to step down for disparaging remarks about the administration.

Petraeus will bring political savvy and a vaunted reputation to the job, but he inherits a mission full of risks for the United States and his own legacy.

"He clearly has the most stature and credibility of any commander in the military," said Richard Fontaine of the Centre for a New American Security.

"That goes a long way, but you also have to deal with the expectations that accompany it," he said.

Petraeus appointment

Petraeus, renowned for his role in the Iraq war, offers Obama the prospect of a smooth transition at the helm in Afghanistan.

As head of the regional Central Command, Petraeus has been deeply involved in shaping the war effort in Afghanistan and Obama made clear his decision marked a change in personnel but "not a change in policy."

Although Petraeus enjoys a near rock star status among troops and in Washington for his role in the Iraq war, the task in Afghanistan is daunting and time is short.

Obama has promised a gradual withdrawal of US troops will begin by July 2011, even though a surge of 30,000 troops will not be complete until September.

In Iraq in 2007, Petraeus had about nine months to show some progress in the war. In Afghanistan, he has much less time, as the White House plans an assessment of the war by December.

"There's not a huge amount of time on the Washington clock," Fontaine said.

Petraeus will be under intense pressure to show progress quickly, at a time of rising casualties and mounting anxiety in Congress that the war against the Taliban could be a fruitless quagmire.

Disappointing outcome

In recent weeks, military officers acknowledged the outcome of a much-touted offensive in Helmand province has proved disappointing, while a pivotal operation in Kandahar has had to be postponed.

In testimony before Congress last week, Petraeus suggested the 2011 target date would not trigger any major pullout, implying a large US force could remain for several years.

He said mid-2011 "is not the date when we look for the door and try to turn off the light, but rather a date at which a process begins."

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's corruption-tainted government meanwhile threatens to undermine any military progress on the ground.

"Our biggest problem in Afghanistan is the government we are supporting there, and it isn't clear to me what Petraeus can do about that," author and journalist Thomas Ricks wrote on his Best Defence blog.

At Kabul headquarters overseeing the NATO-led force, Petraeus will quickly face a crucial decision as to when to launch larger-scale operations around Kandahar, the birthplace of the Taliban.

"I think Kandahar is the crux of it," said Michel O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.

Analysts' view

Analysts say Petraeus will also have to decide the pace of training for Afghan security forces, considered vital to any eventual exit for US and coalition troops.

He will have to balance the need to rapidly expand the Afghan forces while ensuring the soldiers and police can hold their own in combat, a problem that initially undermined similar US efforts in Iraq.

Obama is also banking on Petraeus' political skills and experience to help repair broken relations with the military's civilian counterparts in the State Department and White House, which had become toxic under McChrystal, Fontaine said.

"On the civilian side, I do think you have at least the potential for an improvement in the civilian military ties," he said, citing Petraeus' cooperation in Iraq with the US ambassador at the time.

At the Senate hearing last week, Petraeus tried to reassure lawmakers that the outlook in Afghanistan was not as bleak as some media reports indicated, but appealed for patience.

"The conduct of a counterinsurgency operation is a roller-coaster experience. There are setbacks as well as areas of progress or successes." Petraeus said.

"But their trajectory, in my view, has generally been upward, despite the tough losses, despite the setbacks."

Taliban vow to fight on

The Taliban has said it will continue the insurgency in Afghanistan regardless of a switch in NATO command.

"We don't care whether it's McChrystal or Petraeus," Taliban spokesman Yousuf Ahmadi told AFP by telephone from an undisclosed location.

"Our position is clear. We'll be fighting the invading forces until they leave," Ahmadi said.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government had publicly urged the White House not to remove McChrystal over disparaging remarks he made about officials in US President Barack Obama's administration in a magazine profile.

"Shame on Karzai, the puppet president who was shamelessly asking President Obama to keep McChrystal in the job," Ahmadi added.