With Kim Jong-un threatening to throw his enemies into the 'cauldron' and 'set fire to the dens of crime', we try to get inside the leader's head. ANU experts outline what he's trying to achieve with all his tough talk and whether North Korea can come back from the brink of war.
Leonid Petrov - Like father, like son
“Some rumours suggest that a group of disgruntled officers attempted to assassinate Kim Jong-Un in November 2012,” says North Korea watcher Dr Leonid Petrov.
“If the rumours are true and Kim had to join hands with loyal hardliners to save his regime, the political chess match could have played a major role in North Korea's recent aggressive behaviour, including the ICBM launch and the third nuclear test.
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“The near-war situation also gives the youthful Kim additional extraordinary powers that will help him overcome his real and imaginary rivals in the succession process. This adds credence to the idea that the purpose of Kim Jong-un's succession was to avoid any substantial change in the DPRK.
“Change threatens the very existence of the North Korean state. As the elites in North Korea are equally reluctant of any idea of change, Kim Jong-Un will stay in power for a very long time.”
Tessa Morris-Suzuki - It's the economy, stupid
“In the middle of all of this war-like talk, the North Korean government promoted Pak Pong-ju who is known as an economic reformer,” says Northeast Asia specialist Professor Tessa-Morris Suzuki.
“Kim Jong-un has certainly been trying to push economic reform. He would like on the one hand to push reform, but on the other hand realises that in order to do that he has to have the military on side. And he feels he can do that by talking up the military rhetoric and the external threat.
“The only problem is that Kim Jong-un is so young and inexperienced. He's started down this path with the idea that it is going to get him somewhere, but he hasn't thought of the way out. It's very difficult to see whether he can step back from all the bellicose talk without looking rather foolish.”
Hugh White - Keep your friends close and enemies closer
“The North Koreans have succeeded in demonstrating to America (and more importantly to Seoul) that the US can't protect them from North Korean aggregation, unless it gets to the stage of full scale war,” says strategy and defence expert Professor Hugh White.
“I don't think for a moment that North Korea has intended to launch any substantial attack. I don't think there is any reason to fear that North Korea is dumb enough to start a war.
“What it does want to do is demonstrate is that its position is stronger than people in South Korea, or people in Washington might think.
“If the crisis cools off from now, they will have had a win.”
Ron Huisken - Provocation and plutonium
“The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) certainly does not want to provoke war and, with a bit of luck, they will not screw up and get that outcome,” says Professor Ron Huisken, an expert in East Asian security.
“They do want to emerge from this tantrum as the injured party forced into belligerence by hostile forces and having to be wooed and seduced into stepping back from the brink.
“With North Korea declaring they would reopen the Yongbyon reactor to harvest more plutonium and divert their 'peaceful' uranium enrichment plant to the production of weapon-grade plutonium, they are trying to get to a position of one-upmanship; that is we were forced into it.”
Emma Campbell - Time to talk
“I think it is more important to focus on how we react to what is happening in North Korea than trying to second guess why some of the North Korea's leaders are taking these stances,” says Korean politics expert Dr Emma Campbell.
“What has been ongoing at the moment has not helped anybody. What we are seeing is provocation by the North Koreans and then further provocation by the United States, and you just see a continuing escalation of tensions.
“So what we need is for everybody to step back and think of a new way of resolving these tensions.
“It's time for the US and South Korea to try and engage with the North Korean leadership; to understand what they want, understand what they are trying to achieve, but most importantly try and avoid this kind of situation from escalating.”
This article is from the Australian National University's College of Asia and the Pacific.
