On the second of November, the US will hold mid term elections, and many Democrat strategists are worried that their man in the White House could be dealt a serious blow.
They're crucial because the control of Congress – The House of Representatives and the Senate – is effectively up for grabs.
The Democrats currently control both the House of Reps and the Senate.
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But in the mid-terms, each and every one of the 435 members of the House of Representatives –the lower house – has to face the voters. The Democrats fear –and polls suggest that they're right to be worried – that they could lose their majority in the major legislation-passing House.
The House of Reps was set up with the idea of quickly reflecting the public mood, which is why it faces the public so often in comparison with the Senate.
Forget about 'Change'?
This time around, upwards of 100 House of Reps seats are being branded by commentators as too hard to call; but in bad news for the Democrats, slightly more seats are in 'safe' Republican hands than Democrat.
And on November 2nd, 37 of the Senate's 100 seats are also up for grabs: A state's two Senators serve six year terms, with a third of them facing re-election every two years. A Senate majority for the Republicans would be a disaster for President Obama, who could expert a good deal of his reform agenda to be blocked.
In each house, the party in power runs the committees, the clubs which drive Congress. Committee members control which bills make it to a vote.
Were the Republicans to gain a majority in both the House, and the Senate, the President would be in huge trouble. Historically, sitting Presidents fare badly during mid terms, often losing a treasured House of Reps majority. This can have different end-results: Bill Clinton lost control of both houses in his first term, but held on to win another term. George W Bush watched them both slip away in his second, and Obama won victory over Republican John McCain in the election two years later.
Most commentators think the best the Democrats can hope for is to hang on to their majority in the Senate, while losing the House of Reps, with a recent CNN 'poll of polls' spelling bad news for the Dems. This would, some strategists argue, give Obama something to 'run against'; although if he's thinking it, he's not letting on.
Importantly, there are also 37 gubernatorial races taking place, with some big states in the balance. And as Time magazine points out, 'Governors govern'. Seats in state legislatures are also being contested, and some cities will also be voting in new mayors.
The Palin factor?
To add to the spice of the 2010 mid-terms, the Tea Party – a kind of revolutionary conservative movement within the shell of the Republican Party - has been scaring the pants off the GOP Republicans, or the 'Grand Old Party.'
With former Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin the closest thing to a leader, Tea Party candidates have knocked out GOP candidates in a number of states for the right to represent the Republicans and face the Democrats. Many liberal commentators, however, are hoping the candidates will be too far to the right to appeal to a mainstream voter.
According to the Democratic-leaning New York Times, 'Tea Party' candidates are running in 129 House of Reps seats, and 9 Senate races, including in a number of solidly Democratic seats.
All will be revealed after November 2nd.
