Budget improves but wage growth doesn't

Treasurer Scott Morrison has announced an improved budget bottom line but Treasury has been forced to trim its wage growth forecasts.

The federal government is heading into the long the summer break away from parliament in better shape than it looked just a few weeks ago.

With its one-seat majority in the House of Representatives restored with two by-elections and marriage equality done and dusted, it can now focus on the economic matters in the run-up to a likely election in 2019.

Treasurer Scott Morrison's mid-year budget review, released on Monday, showed deficits and debt smaller than predicted in May.

While Treasury's economic growth forecast was shaved to 2.5 per cent for this financial year - due to weak household consumption - it's expected to accelerate to three per cent in 2018/19.

Employment is also expected to improve.

Amid the positive news, the prediction for wages was reduced over the next four years.

The treasurer, like Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe, expects as the labour market continues to tighten as the unemployment rate falls, wages should rise.

More investment and stronger economic growth will also deliver higher wages.

"The money won't fall from the sky for wages. It won't fall from the government," Mr Morrison says.

However, it's a vicious circle.

If wage growth doesn't improve, household consumption will remain subdued, imposing a drag on economic growth and the budget.

While the treasurer indicated personal tax cuts would be announced in the May budget, given the budget will remain in deficit until 2020/21, it's difficult to see how far they will go.

It could be the make-or-break issue for the government as it strives to improve its stocks in opinion polls.

After all, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has repeatedly promised to put more money in people's pockets.


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Source: AAP


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