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Business investment data to test GDP views

Economists still anticipate Australia has avoided a recession, although the economic rebound may not be as solid as first thought.

The latest construction work figures suggest the expected rebound in economic growth will not be as dramatic as some economists hoped.

New business investment data on Thursday will further indicate how optimistic they should be.

Some economists trimmed their growth forecasts for next week's December quarter national accounts after completed construction work in the quarter eased by a further 0.2 per cent, when they had expected a modest 0.5 per cent rise.

Capital expenditure is forecast to ease by a further 0.5 per cent in the December quarter after the four per cent drop in the previous three months, suggesting the unwinding of the mining investment boom is yet to bottom.

At this stage, recent trade and retail spending figures suggest overall growth should have posted a positive in the quarter after the shock contraction in the September quarter.

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Another negative outcome would constitute a recession, an event Australia has not suffered in more than a quarter of a century.

Economists will finalise their forecasts for December quarter growth after a further series of figures are released early next week with company profits, business inventories and international trade data due.


2 min read

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Source: AAP



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