Cancer death rate predicted to drop

Cancer is still second-most common cause of death in Australia, although rates are decreasing, a new report shows.

Australia's cancer death rates are decreasing with the trend predicted to continue over the next decade.

But cancer is still the second-most common cause of death in Australia after heart disease, with 46,470 people predicted to die from it in 2015 and 126,800 others to be newly diagnosed.

The death rate from all cancers combined, fell from 199 per 100,000 people in 1968 to 167 per 100,000 in 2012, says a new Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) report.

The downward trend is predicted to continue between 2013 and 2025, from an estimated 214 to 183 deaths per 100,000 males, and from 135 to 120 deaths per 100,000 females.

But the number of actual cancer deaths is predicted to rise due to the ageing and increasing size of the population.

Between 2013 and 2025, the number is predicted to increase from 25,580 to 32,010 deaths among males, and from 19,450 to 24,250 deaths among females.

Estimating cancer mortality in the future Australian population was important to help plan future services, said AIHW spokesperson Justin Harvey.

"However, many other factors may affect cancer-related deaths in the future, some of which cannot yet be taken into account when preparing these estimates," he said.

"For example, changes in diagnostic practices may lead to unexpected shifts in incidence and survival rates.

"Different management and treatment options, as well as changes in underlying risk factors in the population, also have the potential to alter the future death rates from those we have projected here."

CANCER BY NUMBERS

In 2009:

* males had a one in two chance of being diagnosed with cancer before they turned 85;

* their most common diagnoses were prostate (one in five); bowel (one in ten), lung (one in 13) and skin (one in 14);

* females had a one in three chance of being diagnosed with cancer before they turned 85;

* their most common diagnoses were breast (one in eight); bowel (one in 15), lung (one in 22) and skin (one in 23);

In 2011:

* cancer accounted for about 30 per cent of deaths in Australia;

In 2006-2010:

* the chance of newly diagnosed people surviving five years was 65 per cent for males and 67 per cent for females;

At the end of 2007:

* 381,164 males and 393,510 females diagnosed with cancer in the previous 26 years were still alive.


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Source: AAP

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