China's soft landing

One of the big fears the market holds for 2012, is that of a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

china_economy_0302_getty_1948822050
But so far, it has failed to eventuate.

Official numbers today, show that China's economy grew by 8.9 per cent in the December quarter.

While that's down on the 9.1 per cent from the previous three months, and is the slowest annual growth rate in two-and-a-half years, it's still much better than what many economists were expecting.

In fact, the result saw Australian shares surge today, and the Australian dollar climb to its highest level in around two-and-a-half months.

In a note, Commsec's Craig James said that the latest Chienese economic data is supportive for Australia's mining, energy and agricultural sectors and that China's economy is arguably faring much better than many of the gloomier economists had expected.

Australian economists are also fairly upbeat about the medium term outlook for Chinese economic growth.

ANZ is forecasting China's economy to grow at 9 per cent in 2012 which is higher than market consensous.

But much of that is dependant on lower Chinese interest rates.

Shane Oliver from AMP Capital says one of the key risks for 2012 is if China eases monetary policy too late to prevent a property crash and hard landing in growth.

Craig James believes the People's Bank of China will ease bank reserve requirements (similar to interest rates) by 50 basis points within the next fortnight.

He also expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points next month.


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By Ricardo Goncalves
Source: SBS

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