Close, but not close enough for Labor to win, say strategists

Strategists in both camps agree Labor will come up short of the 4.5 per cent swing and the net 19 seats it needs to win government on Saturday.

Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten on a street walk at Hurstville shopping centre as part of the 2016 election campaign in Sydney, Friday, July 1, 2016. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING

Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten on a street walk at Hurstville shopping centre as part of the 2016 election campaign in Sydney. Source: AAP

After an eight-week slog that failed to capture the imagination of Australia's 15 million voters, Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten ended the campaign as they started it eight weeks ago.

On election eve, the prime minister spruiked his innovation agenda and hammered home the coalition's key message of stability and economic leadership.

"I ask every Australian to treat their vote ... as though they are the votes which determine the future of our government, that determine the future of our nation," Mr Turnbull told party supporters in the Liberal marginal seat of Reid in inner-west Sydney.
He rejected suggestions he was sounding like a leader who had the election in the bag.

"I'm saying to every Australian - this is a close election, this is not a time to make a protest vote," Mr Turnbull told reporters.

The opposition leader vowed to live up to Labor's "putting people first" campaign theme.

"If we get elected, we won't let you down," Mr Shorten declared.
He also told voters they faced a choice on Saturday.

"You can either have Malcolm Turnbull or Medicare, but you can't have both."

But in a sign the opposition is struggling to make ground with voters, Mr Shorten was forced to campaign in two Sydney seats Labor has on its side of the ledger - Parramatta and Barton.

While three opinion polls on Friday point to an election too close to call, strategists in both camps agree Labor will come up short of the 4.5 per cent swing and the net 19 seats it needs to win government.

How much could determine the future of Mr Shorten post-election.

Various benchmarks, from a net 10-seat gain to creating a hung parliament, have been flagged by opposition figures.

The latter requires a minimum 3.6 per swing, underlying the enormity of the task facing Mr Shorten and Labor.

Only one version of one poll gives Labor a chance of forming government.

The Fairfax-Ipsos poll is having a bet each way, depending on how preferences are distributed.
Using the preference flow from the 2013 election it has the parties locked at 50-50, enough to get the coalition over the line.

But when respondents were asked specifically which party would receive their second preference, Labor edged into the lead at 51-49 per cent - enough to give it a slim majority.

The Galaxy poll has the coalition ahead 51-49, a 2.5 per cent swing on 2013, which would limit coalition losses to a handful of seats.

The Essential poll has recorded a late surge to the government, giving the coalition a 50.5-49.5 lead.

Labor believes one in 10 voters has yet to make up their minds.

Both sides attempted to play down the influence of minor parties and independents as the polls show their combined support running between 20 and 30 per cent.

Cabinet minister Christopher Pyne, whose Adelaide seat of Sturt was thought to be under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, believes what people tell the pollsters and how they vote are not the same thing.

"I am not sure necessarily that the minor parties and the independents will do as well as the polls are indicating," he said.

Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese agreed, saying voters often use the polls to send a message.

Voter dissatisfaction with the major parties is almost certain to play out in the Senate race, where changes to election rules could throw up surprise results across the country.

While the coalition is tipped to retain a healthy majority in the lower house, its worst fears could be realised with an unwieldy Senate

A result should be known around 10.30pm on Saturday, but if it's too close to call, a final outcome may have to rely on a record number of votes cast before polling day.

If the coalition loses, it will be the first time in 85 years a first-term government failed to retain power.


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Source: AAP


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