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Coal exports back on stream after Debbie

Australia's posted a trade surplus of $2.47 billion in May, rebounding from a slim $90 million in April in the wake of Cyclone Debbie.

The resumption of coal exports after the devastating impact of Cyclone Debbie has aided a marked rebound in Australia's trade position.

New figures show exports jumped nine per cent in May which lifted the monthly trade surplus to $2.47 billion, up from $90 million in April after the cyclone hit northeast Australia, closing rail and coal ports in the region.

A $2.42 billion surplus was recorded in March.

Treasurer Scott Morrison took to Facebook to spruik the data.

"This is the seventh consecutive monthly trade surplus - the longest period of surplus since 2011 and at the higher end of market expectations," he said on Thursday.

The forecasts of economists had centred on a surplus of around $1 billion, although the spread of expectations was anywhere between $800 million and $3.5 billion, such was the uncertainty left by the cyclone's impact.

However, the strong trade recovery won't be enough to provide an exports boost to economic growth in the June quarter.

Economists at ANZ said when the April and May results were combined, the trade balance was still down from its average in the March quarter.

"This suggests another negative contribution from net exports," they say.

Treasury expects Cyclone Debbie will reduce economic growth by about a quarter of a percentage in the June quarter.

But Commonwealth Bank senior economist John Peters says the large May surplus and likely large surpluses over the second half of the year and beyond augur well for the federal government's budget position.

"Resultant robust company tax revenues will engineer smaller budget deficits ahead than projected by the government," he said.

Mr Peters noted the government's most recent monthly financial statement showed the deficit was $30.4 billion, $8 billion smaller than had been predicted after 11 months of the 2016/17 financial year.

This partly reflected higher-than-expected tax receipts.

The deficit is forecast at $37.6 billion for the full 12 months


2 min read

Published

Source: AAP



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