Coal exports blown away by Cyclone Debbie

The monthly trade surplus shrank to $555 million in April, an 80 per cent drop from the previous month after the impact of Cyclone Debbie on coal exports.

Economists expect the next set of economic growth figures could be just as skinny as the first three months of the year, as new data revealed the dramatic initial impact of Cyclone Debbie had on the nation's coal exports.

Treasurer Scott Morrison has already flagged the cyclone impact could wipe a quarter of a percentage point from the June quarter growth result.

New figures show the cyclone brought Australia's improved trade performance of late to an abrupt halt in April.

The monthly trade surplus shrank to $555 million, over 80 per cent lower than the $3.2 billion surplus recorded in March.

It was around a quarter of what economists were expecting.

Strong wind and storm surges caused by Cyclone Debbie when it crossed the North Queensland coast in late March caused significant damage to transport infrastructure to the ports, resulting in a significant decrease in coal exports in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

Coal exports almost halved from the previous month, dropping by $2.5 billion.

Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said it was a poor start to the June quarter following the disappointing March quarter economic growth result released on Wednesday, which showed the economy grew by just 0.3 per cent.

The annual growth rate was 1.7 per cent, the lowest since 2009.

"Export shipments will rebound as operations return to normal, potentially setting the scene for a better (September quarter)," Mr Hanlan said.

JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy expects export volumes could rebound as early as May and June, but at this stage, he is still anticipating a modest June quarter growth result of 0.4 per cent.

That would drag the annual growth rate even lower.

Since November last year, the economy had been enjoying large multi-billion dollar monthly trade surpluses, ending a two and half year run of consecutive deficits, as iron ore and coal prices enjoyed a new lease of life.

A record $4.6 billion trade surplus was recorded in December.

In its latest Economic Outlook released on Wednesday, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development noted developments in commodities linked to the Chinese economy remain an important source of income and growth for Australia but also bring "uncertainty and risk".

However, like the Reserve Bank, the OECD expects the economy will be growing close to three per cent by the end of 2018.


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Source: AAP


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