Prime Minister Julia Gillard says she will press on with her plan to price carbon, as a new poll shows the coalition would get its chance to scrap the tax by winning in a landslide.
The latest Newspoll gives the coalition a two-party vote of 58 per cent - which would give the Nationals and Liberals all of the seats they lost at the 2007 election, plus more, if an election was held today.
Experts said it's a hard sell, but the PM is banking on getting the tax through and turning things around.
News that makes sense
Your trusted source for staying up-to-date with the world around you. Get free daily news updates and analysis, straight to your inbox.
Ms Gillard, who is in Melbourne on Tuesday to pitch her climate plan, said change was difficult but she would persevere.
"Reform is difficult and this nation is a better place today because hard reforms were faced up to yesterday," she told ABC Radio.
"We've got the same obligation for our nation's future."
Ms Gillard dismissed suggestions she should consider stepping aside, as only 38 per cent preferred her as prime minister and Labor's primary vote hit a record low of 27 per cent.
"I will be leading this country to a clean energy future, that's what I'm determined to do," she said.
"I'm putting my nation first."
Voter satisfaction with Ms Gillard's performance improved slightly from a previous record low of 28 per cent at the end of June to 30 per cent.
Dissatisfaction with the prime minister fell from a record high of 62 per cent to 59 per cent.
The poll was taken before the government unveiled all the details of its carbon pricing package on Sunday.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has a five-point lead over Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister - his first clear lead in these stakes.
But he said he was not concerned about polls.
"It's not about the polls, it's about... what's good for our country and what's bad for our country, and this carbon tax is not going to be good for us," he told the Nine Network.
BANKING ON CARBON TAX
Newspoll chief Martin O'Shannessy said Labor would be left with a "very small rump" in parliament, similar to the landslide seen in the recent NSW election.
Even if every Green preference went to Labor their two-party vote would be 39 per cent - not enough to hold government.
But it was possible to bounce back, with the John Howard-led coalition going from a 35 per cent primary vote amid unrest over the GST to win the 2001 election.
"It's a hard sell and in fact the narrative that the government has been giving us up to today is `Once we get the detail out there people will accept this and we will be able to gain support for the tax and therefore support for the government'."
He said support for the carbon tax had been flatlining for the last 10 weeks on 30 per cent.
The two-party lead is the biggest for an opposition since 1995 when Mr Howard's coalition led Paul Keating's government by 18 points.
Labor's best standing in the past two decades was under Kevin Rudd in March 2008, when the party held a 62 to 38 two-party
preferred position and Mr Rudd's approval as PM hit 73 per cent.
Treasurer Wayne Swan said the coalition's "scare campaign" was to blame for the polling.
The government expected to "lose some paint" as it undertook what he described as "big" reforms.
"There's been a very big, dishonest scare campaign," he told ABC Radio, adding that previous governments had faced similar predicaments when embarking on reform in the past.
"At the end of the day, the Australian people will be supporting good policy for the future that creates a prosperous economy and a sustainable environment."
