Watch FIFA World Cup 2026™

LIVE, FREE and EXCLUSIVE

Economic growth forecasts downgraded

Economic growth forecasts have been significantly downgraded in the mid-year budget update.

Australian currency pictured in Sydney
Economic growth forecasts have been significantly downgraded in the mid-year budget update. (AAP)

The federal budget deficit is expected to narrow but so is economic growth, with the mid-year update revealing significant downgrades following shockingly weak September quarter figures.

Economic growth is expected to come in at two per cent in 2016/17, remain below trend at 2.75 per cent in 2017/18 before picking up to three per cent in 2018/19, according to the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook released on Monday.

It's a deterioration from the May budget, which had GDP at 2.5 per cent in 2016/17 and three per cent in 2017/18 and followed shock September quarter growth figures showing the economy posted its worse performance since the global financial crisis.

Inflation forecasts have also been downgraded to 1.75 per cent in 2016/17 from two per cent - below the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred two-to-three per cent target range.

What hasn't changed is the forecast return to a budget surplus, which is still expected in 2020/21.

News that makes sense

Your trusted source for staying up-to-date with the world around you. Get free daily news updates and analysis, straight to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

The update shows a slight improvement for the budget deficit, which is now expected to come in at $36.5 billion in 2016/17 instead of the $37.1 billion forecast in May.

In a joint statement, Treasurer Scott Morrison and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said the economy was continuing its transition in the wake of the mining investment boom, despite the downward revision to growth forecasts.

"Economic growth is expected to increase over the forecast period, as the drag from the decline in mining investment dissipates and the economy transitions to broader-based growth, supported by historically low interest rates and a lower Australian dollar," they said.

"Exports and household consumption are expected to support growth, with dwelling investment higher in the near term."

Non-mining business investment was expected to pick up modestly in coming years, despite volatility in commodity prices making forecasts challenging.

"To support economic growth the government will continue to implement our national plan for jobs and growth," the ministers said.

Treasury's unemployment forecasts remain largely unchanged from May, at 5.5 per cent for 2016/17 and 2017/18 with a slight downgrade in projections for the final two years of the forward estimates - from 5.5 per cent to 5.25 per cent.


2 min read

Published

Source: AAP



Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News straight to your inbox

Sign up now for daily news from Australia and around the world. You can also subscribe to Insight's weekly newsletter for in-depth features and first-person stories.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Follow SBS News

Download our apps

Listen to our podcasts

Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service

Stream now

Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world