El Niño is already here. But there's still a 'window of opportunity'

As El Niño strengthens, now is the "window of opportunity" to prepare before its potential impacts unfold, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.

The United Nations agency said El Niño is continuing to intensify and is expected to strengthen from August to October in a new long-range forecast released Saturday.

El Niño typically peaks between November and February, with its greatest influence on global temperatures often felt in the following year.

It's expected to drive up the likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures across many parts of the world, increasing the risk of drought in some regions and wetter conditions in others.

"El Niño is not just on our doorstep — it is inside the house and turning up the heat," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.

"And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening — adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas."

The World Food Programme is seeking to protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries before weather patterns "escalate into humanitarian emergencies". It expects parts of Africa, Central America and East Asia to be the most at risk.

In Australia, El Niño increases the likelihood of warmer and drier conditions, particularly in the east and southeast, raising the risk of drought and bushfires.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) declared El Niño underway in mid-June, and forecasts it will be a "very strong event" — perhaps among the strongest observed since 1950 — that may persist into autumn next year.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged people and leaders around the world to consider the potential risks to their communities and take action.

"El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world," she said.

"But forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do.

"This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold."

What can Australians expect?

An El Niño declaration can be particularly concerning for farmers and those in bushfire-prone regions.

While it doesn't guarantee hotter and drier conditions, it does raise the probability that they will occur.

Andrew King, an associate professor of climate science at the University of Melbourne, said that while this El Niño is likely to be one of the strongest on record, a strong El Niño does not necessarily have a huge bearing on Australian climate compared to a weak one.

"We don't have very many [past] strong El Ninos to look at, but the the strongest ones are not really associated with very very strong drought or anything like that necessarily," he told SBS News.

Climate authorities are also forecasting a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climate driver that tends to push Australia towards hotter and drier conditions.

Coupled with an El Niño, King says it further increases the chance of a dry spring.

A window to prepare

King said there are many weather-sensitive industries that can use forecasts to inform decision-making.

Farmers, for example, may consider how drier conditions could affect crops or livestock, while water authorities can plan for the possibility of increased demand and consider messaging on water conservation.

Greg Mullins, a former commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW and founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, told SBS News that Australia is better prepared than it was before the devastating 2019-2020 bushfires, with emergency agencies already using seasonal forecasts to guide planning.

"We are well prepared. We're better prepared than before Black Summer because a lot was learned from that," he said.

In some parts of the country, preparations are well underway.

Mullins said bushfire danger periods in the Northern Tablelands of NSW, for example, had been brought forward due to dry conditions, triggering additional restrictions on burning and higher levels of readiness among fire agencies.

He said there had also been greater investment in disaster resilience and preparing communities to better look after themselves during bushfires.

While previous strong El Niño events have not always resulted in severe bushfire seasons, he said this year's combination of climate drivers was extremely worrying.

"I know there's a lot of deep concern in all the fire agencies nationally," he told SBS News.

The prospect of a positive IOD developing alongside El Niño is also particularly concerning, he warned.

Mullins noted he will also be watching the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), another climate driver that influences wind and rainfall patterns around southern Australia.

Leading up to the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires, the SAM had been in a negative phase, helping drive persistent westerly winds, while the IOD was in a positive phase.

"The SAM and the Indian Ocean Dipole drove the worst fire season we've ever had," he said.

"And back then, a lot of people were saying, imagine if we got those two drivers in a dry phase and windy phase, and then we had an intense El Niño on top of it.

"Maybe we're about to find out what that looks like."

Emergency agencies are working with the BoM ahead of the release of the spring bushfire seasonal outlook.

That outlook will help determine when contracts for firefighting aircraft are activated and when bushfire danger periods commence, Mullins said.

He urged discussions between the federal government and fire and emergency chiefs in the states and territories, and coordination at the federal level in the coming months.

"There needs to be a heightened level of readiness nationally to provide resources that only the Commonwealth can provide," he said.

"They should be talking about putting mechanisms in place to simplify bringing firefighters and equipment in from overseas, and they might be looking at tipping in additional money ... for more firefighting aircraft to be here."

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