French leader Emmanuel Macron and challenger Marine Le Pen qualified on Sunday for what promises to be a very tightly fought presidential election runoff on 24 April, pitting a pro-European economic liberal against a far-right nationalist.
With projections putting Macron in first place ahead of Le Pen after Sunday's first-round voting, other major candidates admitted defeat. Except for another far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, they all urged voters to back the incumbent in two weeks' time in order to block the far-right.
Mr Macron garnered 28.1-29.5 per cent of votes in the first round while Le Pen won 23.3-24.4 per cent, according to estimates by pollsters Ifop, OpinionWay, Elabe and Ipsos. Official confirmation was expected later on Sunday.
Ifop pollsters predicted a tight runoff, with 51 per cent for Mr Macron and 49 per cent for Mrs Le Pen. The gap is so tight that victory either way is within the margin of error.
In 2017, Mr Macron won with 66.1 per cent of the votes.
Mrs Le Pen, who had eaten into the president's once-commanding 10-point poll lead in recent weeks thanks to a campaign focused on cost-of-living issues said she was the one to protect the weak and unite a nation tired of its elite.
Voters walk outside a polling station on April 10, 2022 in Champigny, Yonne, France. Credit: Louise Delmotte/Getty Images
Mr Macron, meanwhile, told supporters waving French and EU flags: "The only project that is credible to help purchasing power is ours."
Some 48.7 million voters were eligible to vote in the election after an unusual campaign overshadowed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The projections are compiled by polling companies based on a sample of votes from polling stations especially chosen from across the country. They have generally proved to be highly accurate in past elections.
Pivotal debate
A pivotal moment in the next stage of the campaign is likely to come on 20 April when the two candidates are set to take part in a TV debate broadcast live on national television.
The final debate has in the past had a crucial impact on the outcome of the vote such as in 2017 when Mr Macron was seen as gaining the upper hand in exchanges with a flustered Mrs Le Pen.
The 44-year-old is expected for the next two weeks to put his diplomatic efforts on the Ukraine crisis to one side and focus more whole-heartedly on campaigning in a bid to find the election momentum that has so far eluded his team.
Although her opponents accuse her of being an extremist bent on dividing society, Mrs Le Pen has sought to project a more moderate image in this campaign and has focused on voters' daily worries over rising prices.
But Mr Macron is expected to target her past proximity with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, her plans to radically change the functioning of the European Union, as well as the cost of her economic program that includes massive tax cuts.
Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist mayor of Paris, was set for an estimated 1.8-2.0 per cent, a historic low for the Socialists who were in power just five years ago under president Francois Hollande.
Greens candidate Yannick Jadot was seen winning 4.4-5.0 per cent and right-wing Republicans candidate Valerie Pecresse was projected to score an estimated 4.3-5 per cent.
This marks the third time that a far-right candidate has made the run-off vote of a French presidential election, after Marine Le Pen's campaign in 2017 and the breakthrough by her father Jean-Marie in 2002 that shocked France, although he was ultimately defeated by Jacques Chirac.
Pollsters forecast that final turnout would be around 76-74 per cent, down on 2017, though likely above the record-low turnout of just under 73 per cent in the first round in 2002.
High stakes
The stakes are high for Mr Macron, who came to power aged 39 as France's youngest president with a pledge to shake up the country.
He would be the first French president to win a second term since Jacques Chirac in 2002.
If he does, he would have five more years to push through reforms that would include raising the pension age to 65 from 62, in the teeth of union opposition.
He would also seek to consolidate his number-one position among European leaders after the departure of German chancellor Angela Merkel.
A Le Pen victory would be seen as a triumph for right-wing populism, adding to election victories last weekend by Hungarian premier Viktor Orban and Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic, who both have cordial ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Far-right former TV pundit Mr Zemmour made a stunning entry into the campaign last year but has since lost ground.
Analysts say he has actually helped Mrs Le Pen by making her appear more moderate.
