Employment growth tipped to flatten out

The number of Australians with a job is forecast to have risen by 5,000 in September, when jobs figures are released on Thursday.

Employment growth is expected to have slowed in September after enjoying several months of strong gains.

The unemployment rate in September is tipped to rise to 6.3 per cent from 6.2 per cent in August.

The number of Australians with a job is forecast to have risen by 5,000 in September, according to an AAP survey of 13 economists, after a gain of 17,400 in August.

There are an extra 167,000 people with jobs so far this year, at an average monthly gain of just under 21,000.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its employment report on Thursday.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said a weaker month of jobs growth is inevitable after strong gains in July and August.

"A flat unemployment rate fits in with our view, and the RBA's, that we are at the peak in the unemployment rate," he said.

"Our forecasts have the unemployment rate staying around its current level over the next six months before gradually trending lower."

The participation rate is expected to fall to 65.1 per cent in September, from August's two-year high of 65.1 per cent.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said the services sector is the one bright spot among the non mining parts of the economy when it comes to hiring people.

"Activity in these industries has been supported by the sharp depreciation of the Australian dollar, which has redirected spending back towards the domestic economy, and by low interest rates, particularly through robust housing market activity and its flow-on effects," he said.

"Hiring in the services sector also looks to have displayed some catch up over the past year or so following unusually weak outcomes."

However Mr Hogan expects employment growth to then soften next year.

"This is likely to prompt the Reserve Bank to provide a little more monetary policy support to prevent the unemployment rate from rising further."

St George economists say that weak wages is a drag on the economy, despite it being an incentive for employers to hire.

"Weak growth in wages is dampening consumption growth but at the same time maintains corporate profitability and competitiveness," St George said.

"Consumers are spending, but at a lacklustre pace. Concerns about the outlook, dreary consumer sentiment and slow wages growth appear to be keeping a lid on spending."


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Source: AAP



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