The French presidential election next year could be more "explosive" for global markets than the US election, Citi's top equities expert warns.
Citi chief global equity strategist Robert Buckland says the outcome of the US election next month is highly unpredictable.
He has advised his US colleagues that the chances of "the populist candidate", Republican Donald Trump, winning the November election are higher than they think.
However, he says he's much more concerned about the French presidential election, due in April, because of the overwhelming opposition in France to the European Union.
"I would probably put that as potentially more market sensitive than the US presidential election," Mr Buckland said at a Citi investment conference in Sydney in Tuesday.
Mr Buckland said a recent poll showed French sentiment was 60-40 against the European Union, compared to a 50-50 balance in the UK ahead of the Brexit vote.
"That could be potentially explosive if we have a candidate campaigning, which I suspect we will do, in France in favour of leaving the EU," Mr Buckland added.
"Now remember it's much much more complicated if France leaves than if the UK did because France is a member of the eurozone currency group."
Mr Buckland also said he was on "bubble alert", as global shares were in an old bull market but the next big price correction, or bear market, was not yet imminent.
He warned that historically bull markets, like the current one that began in 2009, were prone to bubbles after seven years.
"I just don't see enough boxes being ticked to tell me that the next sell-off, whenever that happens, is the beginning of the next profound 60 per cent bear market, as opposed to a chance to get in (to the market)," Mr Buckland said.
