Simon Gerrans' stunning 2014 win is a cautionary tale for the Australian cycling star as he nears his fourth Tour Down Under title.
Gerrans has a stranglehold on the race after winning Friday's fourth stage in Victor Harbor.
He is the first rider since Andre Greipel's 2010 title to win back-to-back Tour stages.
Gerrans' command performances mean he has a 14-second lead over Jay McCarthy (Tinkoff) and a 26-second gap to defending champion Rohan Dennis (BMC).
It would be the biggest turnaround in the Tour's 18-year history if someone was to deny Gerrans his fourth title.
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But cycling legend Cadel Evans also looked set for his only Tour title two years ago when he held the overall lead going into the Queen stage at Willunga.
Gerrans stunned the race, gapping Evans on the last climb and winning overall a day later by one second.
"It's better than I would have expected, that's for sure," said Gerrans' Orica-GreenEDGE director Matt White.
"(But) if you lose the wheel (on the final climb), look how Cadel lost the Tour.
"He was with Gerro with 350m to go, lost the wheel, lost by one second."
Orica-GreenEDGE were outstanding again in Friday's 138km stage from Norwood to Victor Harbor, south of Adelaide.
They controlled the race up to the first intermediate sprint, which Gerrans won to extend his lead by one second.
A three-man break, featuring Australians David Tanner and Pat Shaw, went clear and was caught with 24km left.
With the forecast rain and wind staying away, the peloton split ahead of the finish.
Gerrans and teammate Daryl Impey were in the front group of about 40 riders.
After Impey delivered him to the finish, Gerrans dominated the small bunch sprint as McCarthy took fourth place behind British rider Ben Swift (Sky) and Italian Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek).
"I'm absolutely thrilled with that," Gerrans said.
"I think I caught a few people by surprise there, myself included.
"The team, what they were able to do today ... they're really making my life as easy as possible."
Gerrans' strong ride on the Corkscrew climb near the end of stage three will give him further confidence.
He stayed with the Tour's best climbers on the way to the stage win.
Saturday's pivotal stage features two climbs up the Old Willunga Hill road and a summit finish.
"Old Willunga Hill probably suits me a little bit better than the Corkscrew climb," he said.
"Corkscrew, as short as it is, I really think it suits the pure climbers with the steep gradient.
"I will have to do what I can up Willunga - it's going to be tough.
"I can promise you one thing - we will give it everything."
Rivals such as Dennis and BMC teammate Richie Porte, who has won at Willunga in the past two Tours, will obviously try to throw everything at Gerrans.
"They can try," White said.
