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IMF warns against withdrawing stimulus

Premature withdrawal of economic stimulus measures could prove costly with the global recovery remaining sluggish, the International Monetary Fund says.

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Source: AAP


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It says, with the exception of some countries, current conditions do not justify a significant rolling back of macroeconomic stimulus or financial policies in 2010.

"Notwithstanding the recent pick-up in growth momentum, there is little evidence as yet that private demand is self-sustaining," the IMF staff paper released in Washington on Tuesday said.

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"Hence, fiscal and monetary stimulus may need to be maintained well into 2010, although if developments proceed as expected, withdrawal could begin in 2011."

While it did not single out any particular country among the exceptions, Australia has proven to be one of the best performing economies during the global downturn, avoiding a recession.

As scheduled, parts of the Rudd government's stimulus measures have already run their course - such as the cash handouts, more generous first home owners grant and the 50 per cent tax break on business investment.

But it intends to proceed with other measures, such as infrastructure spending that is due to be rolled out this year, despite protests from the opposition.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also started reversing its interest rate stimulus late last year, the only G20 nation to have raised rates so far, and has hinted to about 100 basis points worth of further increases this year.

The IMF paper, endorsed by its chief economist Olivier Blanchard, said governments must ensure fiscal sustainability is a key priority in light of the upsurge in government debts in many countries.

"Achieving fiscal sustainability will be a difficult and prolonged process, making it imperative for consolidation to begin as soon as there is clear evidence of self-sustaining recovery," it says.

"Monetary policy, being generally more nimble, can respond more flexibly to evolving macroeconomic conditions."

It says if fiscal policy is tightened as growth gains momentum, it will be possible to raise interest rates more slowly than during previous recoveries.

"However, delays in fiscal consolidation would call for faster tightening of monetary conditions to maintain an appropriate overall policy stance, with adverse consequences for borrowing costs."

RBA governor Glenn Stevens made similar comments in a speech earlier this month.

But he reaffirmed during last Friday's appearance in front of the House of Representatives economics committee that his remarks were not aimed at Australian policy.

But he did agree, under questioning, that there was a link between excessive government spending and interest rates.

"That link is always there," he said.


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