Part of the problem, as health researchers Dr Lesley Russell and Sebastian Rosenberg note in detail here, is the split in funding, delivery and administration between state and federal governments across more than 100 different initiatives.
There is also the question of funding announcements, which tend to dribble out throughout the year rather than forming a part of the federal budget.
Economist Jon Altman says he doesn't expect to see "anything new" for Indigenous Australia in Wayne Swan's budget announcement tomorrow.
News that makes sense
Your trusted source for staying up-to-date with the world around you. Get free daily news updates and analysis, straight to your inbox.
"They've more or less fired all their fiscal bullets as far as Indigenous Australia is concerned," he says.
"They've made their forward commitments to Stronger Futures, to Cape York, to Creative Australia to Carbon Farming Initiative; it has all been sign-posted."
Justin Mohamed, Chair of the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation (NACCHO), agrees.
"On previous budget nights and when the announcements are being made, you know you sometimes walk out of there a little bit flat because Aboriginal health or Aboriginal affairs probably doesn't get the concentrated attention it needs," he says.
The federal government funds a number of Indigenous-specific programs under National Partnership Agreements (NPAs) in partnership with state and territory governments, based on six policy initiatives known as 'Closing the Gap'.
These six measures were set down by Kevin Rudd in 2008 at the same time he gave a formal apology to the Stolen Generations. They cover the broad areas of health, education, infant mortality, life expectancy, literacy and employment.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard's report on Closing the Gap issued in February this year noted that only three out of the six areas were on track for achievement.
This is despite funding for some key areas nearing their initial expiry date.
'CRITICAL YEAR' FOR INDIGENOUS HEALTH
In 2009, the federal government allocated $1.57 billion for Indigenous health initiatives. This funding agreement expires in June, although this has been buffered by a further commitment of $777 million over three years from the federal government -- along with an expectation that state and territory governments will also contribute.
Victoria has already committed to $61.7 million over four years, and while other states have until June 30 to declare their funding commitments, none have so far declared their support.
The federal commitment, as Lesley Russell has written previously, is an increase in per annum expenditure, but because of a bump in funding for the year 2012-13, will actually result in a drop in funding for the year ahead.
"We await news of which programs will be cut, and where," she wrote.
NACCHO's Justin Mohamed is concerned state governments are waiting until tomorrow's Budget announcement before making a call on Indigenous health funding.
"I would say at this stage, we haven't had the confirmed numbers, and we do need every state and territory to come and recommit to closing the gap with their funding, to ensure the whole of Australia - every single Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander person can have life expectancy similar to non-Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people."
The total amount of funding has been increasing since Closing the Gap initiatives were first announced in 2008, but the dollar figure is also only one part of the story. How effectively the money is being used is a question raised repeatedly by those keeping a close eye on the government's Indigenous expenditure.
"It's really about how that money is administered, and where the money goes," says Mohamed.
WHERE TO FROM HERE?
With an election looming, the future of the government's Closing the Gap policies remain uncertain.
The federal opposition has been vocally critical of current state and federal programs, with Shadow Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion saying the efficiency and effectiveness of current programs needed to addressed.
A change of government could also clear out any partisan issues potentially hampering cooperation at state and federal levels, says Jon Altman.
"We've got to remember when we had multi-partisan agreement through COAG on these National Partnership agreements, it was coast-to-coast Labor, and since then we've had a change and a number of state governments and territory governments are non-Labor, so the possibility of contested federalism has increased," he says.
"Of course, that could flip right round if you had a change of federal government, and suddenly you might see a new cooperative federalism between an Abbott government and at least those states and territories that are now conservative."
WHAT ARE THE NATIONAL PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENTS?
Indigenous early childhood development $564.6 over six years from July 2009
Remote service delivery $291.2 over six years from July 2009
Indigenous economic participation $228.8 over five years from July 2008
Remote indigenous housing $1.94 billion over ten years. New funding on top of $3.55 billion already committed, so total funding of $5.5. billion over ten years from Dec 08
Indigenous health outcomes $1.57 billion over four years from July 1, 2009
Remote Indigenous public internet access $6.967 million over four years
