Indonesia is quietly hopeful a change of government in Vanuatu will contribute to the defeat of province West Papua's bid to join a special club of Melanesian states.
However, the southeast Asian giant is not getting too far ahead of itself.
Vanuatu's Prime Minister Joe Natuman lost a no-confidence motion in parliament on Thursday and has been replaced by Sato Kilman, the man he sacked as foreign minister last week.
The musical chairs is expected to potentially sway deliberations of the Melanesian Spearhead Group's leaders summit in the Solomon Islands starting on June 18.
The leaders will discuss whether to admit West Papua to the group with observer status.
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Indonesian foreign ministry information director general Esti Andayani said her country is carefully watching how things play out.
"Even though we know he (Mr Kilman) is more in favour of us, something could always change," she told AAP.
Traditionally Vanuatu has been sympathetic to the plight of the Indonesian territory's decades-long struggle for independence, along with Solomon Islands and the Kanak movement in New Caledonia.
Fiji and Papua New Guinea back Indonesia's position.
Mr Kilman is likely to change Vanuatu's policy on the issue.
In the past Mr Kilman has also flagged the need to increase trade with Indonesia and open a Jakarta embassy.
* The reporter travelled to Indonesia as part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs journalists visits program 2015.
