Recent economic figures highlight why forecasters like those in Treasury have been forced to cut their growth expectations.
Mining investment is falling off a cliff and there are few signs that low interest rates are encouraging non-mining businesses to jump in and fill the void.
Thursday's new figures showed that capital expenditure slumped 9.2 per cent in the September quarter, the weakest quarterly result on record.
It comes a day after data showed a savage drop in engineering construction work during the same period.
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the decline in mining investment is now accelerating as projects are completed and few - if any - new projects take their place.
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"Today's numbers provide no indication that non-mining investment is set to pick up any time soon," he added.
The capex and construction figures feed into next Wednesday's national accounts that contain the keenly-watched economic growth figures.
Mr Bloxham expects this will show an annual rate of 2.5 per cent, but concedes there is downside risk to this forecast.
Even so, this would be a pick-up from the weak two per cent result in the June quarter result, well shy of the long term average rate of 3.25 per cent.
Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said the Abbott-Turnbull government has only presided over below-trend economic growth, noting the Reserve Bank and Treasury have now both downgraded Australia's potential growth rates.
"(This has) significant implications for a return to surplus for the Commonwealth budget," Mr Bowen said.
Earlier this week Treasury deputy secretary Nigel Ray said Australia's potential growth will now be about 2.75 per cent over the next few years, rather than the three per cent forecast in May.
He said it was reasonable to conclude this would "lower the path" of the projected underlying cash balance.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has vowed not to "slash and burn" public spending as a result.
Assistant minister to the treasurer Alex Hawke defended this approach in the face of downward revisions to global growth and a slowing Chinese economy.
But he said the government would bring the budget back into surplus over time.
"This will probably take a lot longer than originally envisaged ... we have to have a very balanced approach," Mr Hawke told Sky News.
In May a surplus was forecast in 2019/20.
The mid-year budget review will be released in mid-December.
