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Jobless rate of 5.8% beats forecasts

Australia's unemployment was steady at 5.8 per cent in December, with jobs growth easily beating market expectations.

Office workers walk through Brisbane
Source: AAP

Australia's unemployment rate was steady at 5.8 per cent in December, defying forecasts and maintaining a low that hasn't been beaten in two years.

The total number of people with jobs fell by 1000 in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, way better than the 5000 drop economists expected.

The almost flat result comes after 130,000 jobs were created in October and November, the strongest two month period of employment growth since the 1980s.

St George senior economist Hans Kunnen said many economists were expecting the number of people with jobs to fall after those two very strong months, especially with recent anomalies about the ABS survey sample.

And he said the buoyant jobs outlook should hold up into the new year.

"Other partial indicators such as job vacancies continue to point to solid labour market conditions," he said.

"Having looked at the various jobs ads series, I see no particular grounds for significant job losses this year. Demand is being held up by new jobs and by the weaker dollar."

However, Mr Kunnen is sceptical that the economy can maintain jobs growth at its current rate, and expects it to average between 15,000 to 18,000 a month in 2016.

"We expect the unemployment rate to remain broadly steady over the near term, and edging slightly lower by the end of the year," he said.

"It is likely that the peak in the unemployment rate is now behind us."

There were 301,000 extra people with jobs in 2015, the strongest year in nine years, and more than half of them were in NSW.

A quarterly survey by the ABS out this week showed there were 167,600 vacancies in November, the highest since August 2012.

Gains were strongest in retail trade, up 23.6 per cent in unadjusted terms, closely followed by the administrative and support services category and professional, scientific and technical services.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said this strength in the services sector and retail is a good sign the economy is recovering from the downturn in mining.

"Consumers are spending, buoyed by the gains in home prices over the past year and the boost to spending power provided by the lower petrol price," he said.

"And then there are the demographics. An ageing population continues to create jobs in the healthcare sector."

Mr James said the strength in tourism is also being underestimated, especially with a strong surge in inbound tourism last year.

"Almost half a million additional tourists visited our shores in 2015 compared with a year ago," he said.

"And the lower Aussie dollar will continue to drive the positive trends in tourism."


3 min read

Published

Updated

Source: AAP



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