Jobs creation pushes back rate cut timetable

Today's unexpected fallin the unemployment rate has seen many economists push back their expectationsfor the next official interest rate cut.

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46,300 jobs were created in January, which saw the jobless rate fall from 5.2 per cent, to 5.1 per cent.

The numbers go against what seems to be widespread job losses, as manufacturing plants shut down in Victoria and the big banks cull employees.

Today, Qantas said that it would offering redundancies to 500 staff as part of a restructure of its business.

CommSec economist, Savanth Sebastian said that, "The rate cuts late last year will help to support activity in the coming months and provide businesses with a bit more breathing space."

He does, however, concede that trading conditions are difficult and profitability is being affected.

Many economists aren't expecting the jobs market to hold out.

The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Index showed that unemployment expectations in February rose by 6.2 per cent.

Bill Evans, Chief Economist at Westpac said, "The index also showed a further deterioration in job confidence despite a 4.2% increase in consumer sentiment overall."

He's still expecting another two interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank. "Our best estimate is that the next move, given the clear resolve of the Reserve Bank at this stage, is for the next cut to be in May with a follow up move in June/July."

Savanth Sebastian agrees. "Any escalation of the Euro Zone debt crisis is likely to prompt the Reserve Bank to move sooner rather than later when it comes to rates. In our judgement, and assuming Europe still muddles through in the next few weeks, the next interest rate cut won't occur until May, after the next round of inflation data."

It's a sentiment shared by NAB economist, Rob Henderson. "Confirmation that unemployment remains at historical lows and the apparent gradual tightening in labour market conditions suggest that there is little chance of a rate cut from the RBA in March, barring a financial melt-down in Europe."


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By Ricardo Goncalves
Source: SBS

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