Even Shane Oliver from AMP Capital said that today's numbers are confusing, so it would seem you'd need someone with an economics degree to explain it all, and the good news is, I hold one.
For the month of December, total employment fell by just over 29,000 jobs, and that's the biggest decline in 8 months.
While full-time jobs rose by 24,500 last month, it slumped by close to 40,000 in November, and was outweighed by the near 54,000 part-time jobs lost in December.
Why is that interesting? Well the decline in part-time jobs comes in a month, where shoppers traditionally spend in the lead up to Christmas. So, does that mean retailers didn't put on more staff during this time?
Of those people already working, they're working more hours with the number of hours worked up by 0.3 per cent. That makes sense, because employers would rather ask existing wokers to stay longer instead of hire new staff.
But what's concerning is the participation rate. Of all of the people that are able to work in Australia, the participation rate measures those that are in employment, and those that are actively seeking work. Well that rate fell from 65.5 per cent to 65.2, the lowest since May 2010.
What this means is that there's more people that are giving up looking for work, effectively adding to the dole queue. Why? It's usually a sign that there's no attractive jobs out there, and a falling participation rate is usually a sign of an economy going backwards. While it's not in danger territory yet, the fear is that it may be.
We're already being warned of slashes to white collar jobs around the country. ANZ has embarked on a cost cutting strategy, which already involves the loss of 130 jobs and there's reports in the Fairfax press, that Westpac too may cut as many as 600 jobs this year.
Furthermore, the ANZ job ads series released earlier this week showed a fall in the number of jobs advertised online and in newspapers across the country, forcing the bank to revise upwards its forecast for unemployment to 5.5 per cent by the middle of this year.
Westpac today has gone one better, predicting the national unemployment rate to peak at 5.75 per cent by July.
What this all means is that the Reserve Bank will need to stimulate the economy to keep it chugging along, and the good news is, with Australian interest rates at relatively high levels compared with the rest of the world, the RBA has plenty of breathing room to cut rates if so needed.
And it seems many economists think that's exactly what the Reserve will do.
CommSec is tipping today that given the ongoing concerns in Europe and no clear resolution to the debt crisis, it's likely that the Reserve Bank will cut rates once again in February.
Economist, Stephen Koukoulas is even suggesting the RBA may go by 50 basis points next month.
But to keep things in perspective, despite the World Bank dire warning of a global recession worse than 2008, it is still predicting China's economy will grow above 8 per cent this year, almost 3 times more than Australia.
That should keep demand strong for our commodities and aid our economy.
