Labor has won the federal election and will form government while Opposition leader Peter Dutton has lost his Queensland seat.
Analysts from the Redbridge Group have predicted a Labor majority and said the party is ahead in 17 to 18 seats that are currently held by Liberal candidates.
Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh said: "I really think we're looking, on this trend, at a likely Labor majority," adding that the main question was how big the majority would be.
"If Labor only wins 10 of them — that's a considerable majority — we're almost talking about a landslide here if they can maintain that trend."
Source: SBS News
"So, while we might see some seats come back a bit ... as the count moves along, it's really hard to see the result, the headline result, come backwards in a big way."
Almost two-thirds of primary votes and just over half of the two-party preferred votes have been tallied, Ratcliff said.
Dutton concedes defeat
Dutton, who has become the first Opposition leader to lose their seat in a federal election, conceded defeat shortly after 9.30pm (AEST).
He started by stating:
"Tonight's not the night that we wanted for the Liberal Party or ... indeed, for our country. But we worked hard every day over the course of the last three years to do our best."
Dutton said: "We didn't do well enough during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight."
He also said he accepted "full responsibility" for that and congratulated Albanese in his address.
Dickson has been won by Labor's Ali France, who had made two previous runs in the electorate before 2025.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on ABC TV that France was a strong candidate, and that the Coalition lost the battle on health and cost of living policy "and Peter Dutton trailed away as the campaign rolled on".
The 'trouble the Liberal party is in'
Ratcliff said Labor was looking at winning around 80-something seats — "a very comfortable majority".
He said the Labor Party had taken the fight to what were traditionally very safe Liberal party seats, such as Berowra on Sydney's upper north shore.
The seat was originally thought to be a Liberal/independent contest but now there was "a good chance it'll be a Labor/Liberal contest", he said.
Source: SBS News
"They're in trouble in most of their seats in Melbourne and most of their seats in Sydney, and they're not getting the swings towards them they'd hope to get in the outer suburbs, and even in the regions," Ratcliff said.
"We're not seeing a lot of swings to the Coalition anywhere — most of the swings we're seeing are away from them at this point."
A lone bright spot for the Liberals was Opposition immigration spokesperson Dan Tehan, who looked to have seen off a challenge from independent Alex Dyson in his regional Victorian seat of Wannon, with a swing towards him of 0.6 per cent.
The Liberals were set for a wipeout in Tasmania with the loss of Bass and Braddon, and faced defeat in their last seat in metropolitan Adelaide, with Sturt MP James Stevens suffering a 7.5 per cent swing against him.
Former Liberal leader and prime minister Tony Abbott said Dutton is "entitled to be extremely proud of his public service to our nation, but it seems the Australian people weren't ready to break the century-old habit of giving first-term governments a second chance".
Additional reporting from the Australian Associated Press.
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