Liberal National Party preferences look set to swing the central Queensland seat of Rockhampton to Labor, with independent Margaret Strelow knocked into third place.
With 57 per cent of the LNP vote counted, more than half of the party's preferences are understood to have flowed to One Nation candidate Wade Rothery, putting him ahead of Ms Strelow.
With the majority of Ms Strelow's preferences expected to go towards Labor, a third-place finish for the independent would virtually guarantee victory for Labor's Barry O'Rourke and bring the party close to the 47 seats needed to form a majority.
"It will be very difficult for me to win after the distribution of LNP preferences today. I expect the seat will go to Labor," Ms Strelow said on Facebook on Wednesday afternoon.
"The LNP swapped preferences with One Nation and about half of LNP voters followed the card. This will wipe out my lead."
Ms Strelow had been widely tipped to win the seat on the minority party's preferences.
The former Rockhampton mayor had the support of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to replace retired Agriculture Minister Bill Byrne.
She ran as an independent after being overlooked for Labor preselection amid a factional battle that instead chose Mr O'Rourke, a public servant.
Mr O'Rourke's anticipated win brings the government's confirmed seats to 45, compared to the LNP's 37.
Labor sources are confident they will get the majority needed to return to power, taking Gaven and Aspley, with the seat of Townsville expected to go to the wire.
