Western Australia is set to continue as Australia's boom state but will be constrained by a shortage of skilled workers, Access Economics says.
In its latest Business Outlook, the forecasting agency says states other than WA will continue to struggle as they emerge from the economic crisis.
Access said $250 billion in resource and other projects in WA were creating an unprecedented demand for skilled workers.
But while in the past WA has taken advantage of high migration rates, the number of overseas workers was dropping sharply.
Population growth has also dropped back at three times the pace seen nationally.
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"WA already has too little spare capacity, so it will soon see a swag of wage and price increases as skill shortages and delivery dates proliferate," the report said.
NSW's modest recovery
NSW's recovery is tipped to continue at a modest pace, but faces the dual challenges of higher interest rates affecting consumption and the strength of the dollar affecting manufacturers and tourism.
While business investment is expected to rise over the next two years, it will lag behind WA and Queensland.
Unemployment in NSW is tipped to drop to an average 4.1 per cent in 2011/12, while jobs growth flatlines at 1.6 per cent between 2011/12 and 2013/14.
Victoria has been hit by a downturn in foreign students, as well as high interest rates and a strong dollar.
But its housing market is solid. Around a third of all homes being built in Australia are in Victoria.
Victoria's jobless rate is forecast to drop to 4.3 per cent in 2011/12, from 5.1 in 2010/11.
Queensland's tourism sector has taken a heavy hit from the high dollar, with the effect lingering "for some time", Access reported.
Coal, gas to boost Queensland jobs
But developments in the coal and gas sectors, despite the floods, are set to boost jobs - pushing the unemployment rate to an average 4.1 per cent in 2011/12, down a percentage point from the current financial year.
South Australia's wine and car makers face a bleak outlook, with unemployment rates set to hover above national rates.
But a number of big resources projects, including the Olympic Dam mine expansion and gas-fired power station at Tepko, are bright spots for jobs.
Access said Tasmania's short-term growth outlook appeared "relatively modest", with unemployment remaining above the national average.
The NT's economy is growing more slowly than Australia as a whole, as government and private sector investment eases back, but LNG and oil projects are expected to lift economic growth beyond 2012.
Public sector spending and a housing construction surge has kept the ACT's economy ticking over, with Access forecasting the territory to "keep much of its share of Australia's economy and population" despite the government's talk of trimming the budget to cover the cost of the flood relief effort.
