The latest strain of the bird flu has killed three people in China. While medical authorities say there is no need for hysteria amongst Australians, they are keeping track of the virus' progress to prevent the further spread.
DR NIKOLAI PETROVSKY, RESEARCH DIRECTOR AT VAXINE, SPOKE WITH SBS.
It's very early days at the moment, and we only know of seven or so cases in China and that number could potentially be greater, but at this stage it is very early and all we can do is sit and watch.
While no one is trying to alarm anyone, like any pandemic it has to start with only a few cases and no one really knows the eventual scale at the very beginning, or whether this is the start of the pandemic or just a flash in the pan.
What is concerning is that we already have a few deaths, so we know it is highly lethal and we know that the cases are spread across different areas of China, so whatever is happening, is not happening in one place but across a number of places.
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WHAT CONDITIONS ARE CAUSING THIS OUTBREAK?
Most new viruses that emerge have quite a high chance of coming out of China for a number of reasons. Principally with influenza, it is the connection with birds, pigs and human contact that creates an environment where strains of influenza can cross over from birds and pigs to humans.
In China, because there is a large amount of those things together, it means it is one of the countries where new strains are likely to emerge – but not the only place.
However, the concern is that the Chinese government does not disclose these cases when they are actually happening, but instead delay the communication with the rest of the world, for political or other reasons.
This means the rest of the world, if it turns out to be a serious new infection, are deprived of several months of warning in which to start preparing for potentially a new pandemic.
So the concern, in a number of cases, including with the SARS epidemic, it appeared that the Chinese authorities withheld information from the rest of the world that this in fact was happening.
DO YOU THINK THIS WILL BECOME A PANDEMIC OR AN EPIDEMIC?
It's impossible to say what will happen with this virus. That's the nature of influenza. It's inherently unpredictable. At the moment what we can say is that it doesn't have the capability to cross from one human to another.
We know for instance that the previous Bird flu (H5N1), which is currently still present in Asia has not become a more serious problem is that it has never acquired that ability to cross between humans, so providing the same applies to this virus and that it doesn't learn to how to cross between humans, then it will remain a localised problem.
HOW QUICKLY COULD A VACCINE BE MADE AVAILABLE?
Currently, the problem is that to manufacture a vaccine is a very old fashion process. As a consequence it can take 6 to 12 months to make a vaccine for a new influenza virus, from the point that the virus is taken serious enough to make a vaccine.
Newer technologies that allow vaccines to be made in a much shorter time are being developed, but unfortunately in many cases, the newer technologies are not supported by government funding to be ready for a future pandemic.
HOW IMPORTANT IS ADEQUATE MONITORING AND SURVEILLANCE FROM OTHER COUNTRIES?
Given the unpredictable nature of influenza, it is absolutely critical we know what is happening in real time and that as these viruses emerge. Given their potential to change, we need surveillance mechanisms around the world so we can identify these viruses and map where they are going and what is happening to them.
Currently we have systems to do this, but it highlights that existing systems can always be improved.
This requires additional investments from governments from across the world to have the very best surveillance systems.
