Morrison waiting for one big opportunity

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is giving himself as much time as possible for a miracle to happen ahead of a likely election defeat in May.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison

PM Scott Morrison is giving himself all the time he can for a miracle to arrive before the election. (AAP)

The great Muhammad Ali was an expert at letting his opponent tire himself out before delivering the knockout blow.

The "rope-a-dope" strategy relied on absorbing the blows, waiting for an opportunity, and then securing a stunning victory.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is not Muhammad Ali. But right now he is absorbing the blows and waiting for a chance.

As one Liberal put it this week when talking down the chances of an early election, Morrison is giving himself as much time as possible.

"Just waiting for something to happen," they said.

It's unclear what that something might be before a May election.

The economy is the coalition's great hope, and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg tried to send the conversation in that direction with warnings about the global outlook.

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its economic growth forecast, as banks tighten lending.

"As the global storm clouds gather, it's more important than ever that we stay the course on our economic plan," Frydenberg told reporters this week.

"A plan that has delivered more jobs, lower taxes, and a budget that will be in surplus after a decade of deficits."

It would take something significant to dent the Australian economy so much that voters feel they have to stick with the coalition.

Maybe China's mountain of bad debts finally crashes down, or the United States' trade war gets dramatically worse. It feels unlikely, but anything can happen.

The coalition can point to great unemployment numbers, a looming budget surplus, and a slowdown in housing prices as their track record for voters.

They also point to Labor's tax plan as a potential drag on the economy.

But all those things have been in place for a long time and the polls are still bad.

John Howard famously turned around the 2001 election on the back of Tampa and the September 11 terror attacks.

The first is unlikely to happen in 2019, in part because of boat arrival policies developed in response to the Tampa crisis.

And September 11 was an epoch-defining moment.

At the moment it's hard for Morrison and the coalition to land huge punches on the Labor opposition.

Bill Shorten has been out in the field laying the groundwork for his tax policies for years. Voters know what he stands for and they don't seem scared.

If Malcolm Turnbull had not been removed and the polls remained almost dead even, then the coalition would not be waiting for a miracle out of the blue to save the election.

But Turnbull is gone, the polls are bad, and all that's left is to swing big haymakers and hope for the best.

Parachuting Warren Mundine into the NSW marginal seat of Gilmore is one of those swings, an attempt to outfox Labor and create some attention.

Mundine is an indigenous leader and a former Labor national president, who has made a public shift to the right in recent years.

But Morrison's decision to kick local Gilmore man Grant Schultz out of the Liberal candidacy and plant Mundine in the marginal seat has caused angst in the party.

"I can understand the hurt there, but the reality is that Warren Mundine is the candidate," Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton told 2GB radio.

"The processes are never clean, never easy in politics, that's the reality."

Labor seems confident the party can beat Mundine.

"For a long time he was desperate for the Labor Party to give him a seat in parliament. There is a reason we didn't, and I'm sure the voters of Gilmore will discover that," Tanya Plibersek told the ABC.

Maybe it's a masterstroke - or maybe it's a big swing that falls foul, and the local party is enraged for no reason.

Morrison is giving himself all the time he can for a miracle to arrive or a big swing to land.

At this point, taking the body blows and hoping for a knockout punch appears Morrison's best hope.


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Source: AAP


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