Scott Morrison has largely stayed away from the NSW state election campaign and that's just fine with NSW Liberals.
Saturday's result could bring hope or ruin for Mr Morrison just weeks out from the national poll.
Victorian Labor's big win in November, as well as the Wentworth by-election loss, sent shockwaves through the federal coalition, forcing rethinks on climate change and immigration.
The state and federal Liberal branches have been at pains to make sure the campaigns are separate, and specifically about state issues.
But the prime minister did carefully try to link the successes of his government with Premier Gladys Berejiklian's track record in Sydney.
"We have cleaned up the mess that Labor left behind, just as the state government had to clean up the mess that Labor left behind," Mr Morrison told reporters with Ms Berejiklian recently.
"The NSW government has delivered on the ground ... our government is following the same path."
But the state Liberals have not wanted their federal colleagues too close to the campaign, so Mr Morrison did not even speak to the crowd at the state campaign launch.
The polls suggest Mr Morrison's government is headed for a solid defeat in May, and the state Liberals want to avoid any of the stink washing off on them.
The Berejiklian government is campaigning on its track record of building infrastructure in Sydney, being more progressive on the environment than the feds, and just generally not being Labor.
Like Mr Morrison, federal Labor leader Bill Shorten kept his appearances in NSW over the past three weeks to a minimum, although he did make a speech at the party's campaign launch extolling Mr Daley's credentials to lead the state.
If Labor picks up seats on Saturday, Mr Shorten will take it as a win. The NSW branch of the party has been on the nose so badly for years that any steps forward will be celebrated.
Nationals leader Michael McCormack will be watching closely as his party deals with leadership tensions and falling votes in some seats.
"I think the issues are different, I think the dynamics are different and I'd be hesitant at suggesting the outcome of this election would necessarily influence the federal election," independent Wagga Wagga MP Joe McGirr told ABC radio this week.
But Saturday is a worry for Mr Morrison. A second bad state loss and the Liberal brand, party members and volunteers will be hurting ahead of the May poll.
