A significant slump in support in key election battlegrounds could cost the Turnbull government 10 seats in NSW, six in Queensland and three in Western Australia, an analysis of Newspolls over the past two months shows.
The analysis for The Australian reveals the coalition has suffered a 6 per cent swing against it in two-party-preferred terms in Queensland, a 7.3 per cent swing in Western Australia and 3.6 per cent deterioration in NSW, enough to lose the election.
The polling also shows that in South Australia, Nick Xenophon's party has attracted one in five primary votes at the cost of the coalition, Labor and the Greens.
The coalition leads in two-party-preferred terms in Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland, is tied in NSW and trails in Victoria.
If the swings in each state were repeated in a uniform manner on July 2, Mr Turnbull would lose office just nine months after toppling Mr Abbott.
In Queensland, the decline of the Palmer United Party appears to have favoured Labor and the Greens, with the ALP's primary vote leaping by six points and the Greens up almost four points as the government has dropped 2.7 points.
Western Australia is where Labor has improved the most, with a 7.2 per cent rise in primary vote and a matching lift in two-party support as the coalition's core vote tumbled by 8.2 per cent.
