An analysis of recent Newspolls suggests the Coalition is on track to win the next election but lose 10 to 12 seats, giving Malcolm Turnbull a reduced majority to govern.
Queensland is emerging as a problem state for the government, which is also losing ground in Victoria, Western Australia and NSW as it counts down to a July 2 poll, the survey shows.
The Coalition has also suffered a fall in support among men and country voters, according to the analysis of Newspolls conducted in the first three months of the year for The Australian.
In Queensland, Coalition support has dropped six percentage points in two-party terms since the 2013 election but it remains ahead of Labor with 51 per cent of the vote.
Labor has recovered ground in Victoria where it has a two-party preferred lead of 53 per cent.
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But its core support in NSW has flatlined and it has slumped the most in South Australia, while also losing women voters to the Greens.
The government is facing an overall fall in its primary vote of 1.6 percentage points and a two-party-preferred swing against it of 2.5 percentage points, the analysis shows.
