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NZ Reserve Bank may hold rates until 2021

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand predicts its official cash rate now won't move from its record low until 2021.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand says it is not likely to move the official cash rate from its record low for another two years and any change could go in either direction.

Bank governor Adrian Orr on Wednesday announced the rate would stay unchanged at 1.75 per cent, where it has been since late 2016.

However, while the central bank's language was only slightly more dovish than the previous statement, its forecast for a hike has been pushed out from late 2020 to March 2021.

"We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and 2020. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down," Mr Orr said in the statement.

"We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period."

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The RBNZ predicts a pick-up in New Zealand's economic growth this year - citing low interest rates, government spending and employment growth - but also points to slowing growth among New Zealand's trade partners.

"Global commodity prices have already softened, reducing the tailwind that New Zealand economic activity has benefited from," Mr Orr said.

"The risk of a sharper downturn in trading-partner growth has also heightened over recent months."

Bank ANZ, in a statement, said it was still forecasting a rate cut in November, a position in line with broader market sentiment this month.


2 min read

Published

Source: AAP



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