Polian, who had spent 13 years turning the Colts from frequent underachiever to perennial Super Bowl contender, had made a franchise-altering mistake a few months earlier; Indianapolis would finish the 2011 season with a 2-14 record. Now the bill had come due: Polian entered Irsay's office on that Monday morning and, along with several others in the front office and coaching staff, was fired.
"People often ask: What's the biggest mistake you made?" Polian reflected during a telephone conversation this week. To him the answer is clear.
Late in the summer of 2011, the Colts were slowly learning that legendary quarterback Peyton Manning's neck injury was more serious that initially thought. Manning would go on to miss the entire season, news Polian and the Colts wouldn't learn until nine days before the season opener - perhaps the worst possible moment for a team to adjust. By the time that reality became clear, something else had, too: Though the Colts' roster included backup quarterbacks, Polian had not adequately prepared the team for the worst-case scenario of enduring a season without their starter.
"Maybe there aren't any answers," said Polian, whose final Indianapolis team wound up as the league's worst team while starting Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky at the game's most important position. "But I certainly should've asked the questions and didn't."
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Three games and several significant injuries into the 2015 season, a fact Polian learned the hard way has become a truism in today's NFL: It's difficult enough to find a reliable starting quarterback, but even that is not enough. The smart teams have two, including a backup who - if he doesn't offer the same level of ability - at least doesn't represent a potentially fatal shock to an offense's system.
This past Sunday, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered a sprained knee ligament, becoming the third franchise quarterback to suffer an injury that'll cost him time and force his team to adjust. New Orleans's Drew Brees missed his first meaningful football game in 20 years last Sunday, a loss that continued the Saints' spiral toward an 0-3 start, and a week earlier Dallas quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone and is expected to miss around two months.
The Cowboys began scrambling almost immediately, trading for Matt Cassel to provide depth for Brandon Weeden and Kellen Moore. The Saints elevated backup Luke McCown, and the Steelers installed veteran Michael Vick - signed, in what appears now as an act of remarkable foresight, in late August - to start while Roethlisberger is out.
Nevertheless, Vick's experience as a full- or part-time starter for three teams over a dozen seasons does not necessarily suggest a smooth transition for a team that, before Sunday, possessed one of the most formidable offenses in the AFC.
"Ben has been in Pittsburgh for over 10 years," Steelers Coach Mike Tomlin told reporters on Monday, "so there is a certain comfort with that continuity. We're not going to assume certain things because Mike is a veteran player and he's up to speed on our large body of work. We're going to work in his comfort zone and bring the game to him to allow him to put us in the best position to win a football game."
Polian learned a hard lesson in 2011: Surviving with a backup quarterback is about more than the passer's ability to perform. How the rest of the offense reacts to the stand-in is perhaps just as important.
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What domino effects did Brees's absence have on the Saints offense last Sunday, considering Brees's mastery of Coach Sean Payton's playbook and that McCown hadn't started a game since September 2011? How did Dallas prepare differently or alter blocking assignments or simplify the offense with Weeden starting instead of Romo, whom Coach Jason Garrett had in mind when he tailored his attack? How will the little things affect Pittsburgh with Vick in the lineup instead of Roethlisberger - along with the seemingly minor fact that Vick is left-handed, essentially forcing offensive coordinator Todd Haley to construct a mirror image of the scheme he had designed the first three weeks?
These are the tiny cuts that can sap an offense's potency during a long-term quarterback substitution. That's one reason the Green Bay Packers have drafted 13 quarterbacks since 1993, despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as starters. It is an emphasis the Colts came to know well in 2011.
During the months before that season began, then-Coach Jim Caldwell's staff designed an offense meant in every way to complement Manning. Blocking schemes and receiving routes, the balance of passes to runs, timing and intricacy and pre-snap adjustments - for months almost nothing was installed without Manning as the motor to the Indianapolis machine.
The Colts knew that summer that Manning's neck had been injured, but because of the NFL lockout, team representatives were warned by attorneys to avoid discussions with players. Polian said he did as he was told, acknowledging now that abiding the advice was his first mistake; without regular dialogue with Manning, the franchise couldn't track its star quarterback's progress.
"The perfect storm," said Polian, adding that until August the organization believed Manning would be 100 percent by opening day.
When the lockout ended, Polian said Manning assured him he would be ready. And so the relieved Colts moved forward with their plan. The NFL draft had been months earlier - had Polian known the then-35-year-old Manning would miss even a few games in 2011, he said he likely would've drafted a passer in 2011, initiating a far different alternate reality for the Colts, who might today be starting Colin Kaepernick instead of Andrew Luck - and veteran free agents were snapped up elsewhere during training camp and preseason.
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Late in the preseason, Manning's throws lacked power and weren't accurate beyond 10 or so yards, a side effect of the nerve damage sustained in the quarterback's neck. By then the Colts were in a real pinch. Polian engaged the Denver Broncos in trade talks to try to acquire Kyle Orton, but with Tim Tebow as Denver's starter that year, Broncos executive John Elway wisely held onto Orton as his own contingency. The Colts were stuck, left to fight for scraps. Upon learning that Manning's neck injury wouldn't just threaten his season but also his career, they would eventually bring Collins out of retirement. After finding out he was a poor fit for the offense Caldwell had designed they turned to two other options. Painter had never started an NFL game, and Orlovsky hadn't started in three years.
The Colts' fatal sin was hope. They had waited too long, taken Manning at his word and minded legal advice, crossing their fingers instead of making necessary adjustments because Manning was a four-time MVP who had made 208 consecutive NFL starts. Indianapolis never bothered with a contingency because, for 13 years, it had never needed one.
"We learn from our mistakes," said Polian, adding that the ordeal still stings years later because of how many jobs would be lost because of, in hindsight, such a seemingly simple oversight.
On a September day in 2011, Polian and Caldwell, still planning for Manning to return at some point that season, were trimming Indianapolis's roster to 53 players. Polian's assistant knocked on his office door, interrupting the meeting. What, Polian recalled wondering, was so serious that it couldn't wait?
The team doctor had done an MRI exam on Manning's neck, and the results were in. The doctor needed to see Polian. The assistant said it was urgent.
