Labor is set to win the central Queensland seat of Rockhampton, bringing Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's government a step closer to the majority it needs to stay in power.
Independent candidate Margaret Strelow on Wednesday conceded defeat, with Liberal National Party preferences going to One Nation, swinging the seat to Labor's Barry O'Rourke.
It would bring Labor's total confirmed seats to 45, two shy of the 47-seat majority in the new 93-seat parliament. Ms Palaszczuk does not want to have to again rely on the cross bench, which will be larger and more varied after the election.
"It will be very difficult for me to win after the distribution of LNP preferences today. I expect the seat will go to Labor," Ms Strelow posted on Facebook on Wednesday afternoon.
"The LNP swapped preferences with One Nation and about half of LNP voters followed the card. This will wipe out my lead," she wrote.
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With 57 per cent of the LNP vote counted, more than half of the party's preferences are understood to have flowed to One Nation candidate Wade Rothery, putting him ahead of Ms Strelow.
A majority of the former Rockhampton mayor's preferences are expected to go towards Labor, and a third-place finish for the independent would virtually guarantee Mr O'Rourke's victory.
Ms Strelow ran as an independent after she lost pre-selection, despite the backing of the premier, amid a factional battle that instead chose Mr O'Rourke.
Labor sources are confident they will also claim the Gaven and Aspley electorates, with Townsville expected to go down to the wire.
Seven seats are still undecided, four days after Queenslanders went to the polls.
LNP leader Tim Nicholls on Wednesday repeated his earlier remarks that the election wasn't over yet, but the party won't be able to form government. It has 37 seats at the moment, and may get 40.
He again called on Ms Palaszczuk to say whether she will keep her promise to go into opposition if Labor does not win enough seats to secure a majority government.
"The answer that Annastacia Palaszczuk is refusing to give is whether she will keep her word or whether she will break her promise like she did in 2015," he told reporters in Toowoomba.
"She said she wouldn't govern with minor parties or independents and she did."
Ms Palaszczuk, who has not made a public appearance since Monday, said during the 27-day campaign she wouldn't do any deals and would rather go into opposition than form government with One Nation.
She remains steadfast in her confidence she will win a majority, but is not yet in the clear on having to renege on her word.
The cross bench will be made up of Robbie Katter and Shane Knuth of Katter's Australian Party (and possibly a third KAP MP), Noosa independent Sandy Bolton and likely One Nation member Stephen Andrew.
A tight race continues between Labor and the Greens in the seat of Maiwar.
