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Rates not safe

The Reserve Bank's decision to leave its interest rate on hold at 4.5 per cent surprised no one. But there's speculation that retail banks may raise rates independently.

2 min read

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Updated

By Ricardo Gonçalves

Source: SBS


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Last week, underlying inflation fell to a multi-year low, within the RBA's target band of 2 to 3 per cent, virtually assuring that the board would have left rates on hold at today's meeting.

Also influencing the RBA would have been the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showing a modest, but worse-than-expected, rise in retail sales and a fall in building approvals.

These are two of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Let's not forget, the official cash rate is 1.5 per cent higher than it was a year ago.

The effect of the recent rate increases are still being felt by the Australian economy.

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Retailers have had to heavily discount their goods to get consumers spending.

In the housing sector, research from RP Data and Rismark show that house prices fell 0.7 per cent in June, while the Housing Industry Association says new home sales fell to a 17-month low.

Add these local pressures to the concerns about the global economic recovery, and you have the perfect recipe for the RBA to leave rates where they are.

Experts are now predicting there is only a one-in-four chance that we'll see an official rate rise by the end of the year.

So with rates set to stay on hold at least until October -- the time when we will get the next inflation figures -- now it is the perfect time to try to pay off your home loan quicker, and speak to your financial institution for a better deal.

I guess the key is not to rest on your laurels.

Even if the RBA does not lift rates, there is a real possibility the banks may raise mortgage rates independently of the Reserve Bank because of increased funding costs.

It is a concern that Greg Evans from ACCI expressed in a recent interview with SBS World News Australia.

Lisa Montgomery from Resi told SBS that if banks do raise rates after the federal election, borrowers can expect a 15 to 20 basis point increase.


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