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Rates tipped to rise

Home borrowers are expected to be hit with some bad news when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets today.

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Source: AAP


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Home borrowers are expected to be hit with some bad news when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday.

Most economists predict the central bank will vote to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its board meeting in Sydney.

A jump in the cash rate - from four per cent to 4.25 per cent - would see monthly repayments on an average $300,000 home loan rise by $50.

The news for borrowers is expected to get worse, with most experts expecting rates to climb to at least five per cent by Christmas.

This would add $200 a month to average home loan repayments.

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Borrowers already copped a rate rise in March, which followed three at the end of last year.

The RBA meets on Tuesday morning and is scheduled to announce its decision at 2.30pm (AEST).

Macquarie Group interest rate strategist Rory Robertson said a strengthening jobs market and Chinese demand for Australian resources added to the case for a rate rise.

"Another hike this month still looks like an 80 per cent probability," he said.

The ANZ job ad series for March is also due out on Tuesday, with economists expecting the figures to show an improvement in the number of job hours being worked.

National Australia Bank (NAB) has promised not to rip off its customers if RBA board members vote to raise the cash rate.

"NAB has reassured customers that it will not move its standard variable interest rate beyond any change the RBA makes to the official cash rate in April 2010," the bank said in a statement on Monday.

Treasurer Wayne Swan is trying to quell excitement about an economic recovery.

He pointed to research from Deutsche Bank showing the resources-driven states of Western Australia and Queensland had shifted from "outperformance to underperformance".

"The key to Australia's strong relative performance through the global recession has primarily been domestic policy settings and the resilience of the Australian financial system, and not the role played by Chinese demand," Mr Swan said in an economic note on Monday.

A weaker labour market in the second half of 2009 would not be felt until the next budget for 2010-11, which is scheduled to be delivered in five weeks, the treasurer added.

The ANZ job advertisement series for March is due out on Tuesday, with economists expecting the figures to point to an improvement in the availability of full-time work.

Official unemployment data for the same period is due for release on Thursday, with Commonwealth Securities expecting the jobless rate to increase from 5.3 per cent to 5.4 per cent.

Economist Savanth Sebastian said the data was likely to show the creation of 20,000 new jobs. "We're going to see some of those discouraged job seekers make their way back to the workforce," he told AAP. A

strong increase in the number of hours worked would make the RBA more inclined to keep raising rates, Mr Sebastian said about the labour market figures.

"That's going to be of more importance than the number of jobs created," he said.


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